| 英文摘要: | In recent years a number of studies have supported an association between climate change and migrations; Ruohong Cai from the Environmental Defense Fund, USA, and co-authors studied the role of one of the intermediate links between climate change and migrations: agriculture. They show that temperature increases are associated with migration flows and that this relationship is particularly strong for countries that base a large part of their economies on agriculture. This finding is explained by the crop yield losses that can occur under higher temperatures. Furthermore, the authors find that this effect is non-linear: long exposure periods to temperatures higher than 30 °C during the crop growing season can greatly reduce yields. This, in turn, increases the number of people who are forced to migrate from agriculture-focused countries. A possible way to reduce this effect would be to encourage implementation of adaptation strategies that protect agricultural production in particularly agriculture-dependant countries, and hence reduce the incentive to migrate. |