| DOI: | 10.2172/1127130
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| 报告号: | DOE-CU-05109
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| 报告题名: | Collaborative Research: Separating Forced and Unforced Decadal Predictability in Models and Observations |
| 作者: | Tippett, Michael K.
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| 出版年: | 2014
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| 发表日期: | 2014-04-09
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| 国家: | 美国
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| 语种: | 英语
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| 英文摘要: | This report is a progress report of the accomplishments of the research grant âCollaborative Research: Separating Forced and Unforced Decadal Predictability in Models and Observa- tionsâ during the period 1 May 2011- 31 August 2013. This project is a collaborative one between Columbia University and George Mason University. George Mason University will submit a final technical report at the conclusion of their no-cost extension. The purpose of the proposed research is to identify unforced predictable components on decadal time scales, distinguish these components from forced predictable components, and to assess the reliability of model predictions of these components. Components of unforced decadal predictability will be isolated by maximizing the Average Predictability Time (APT) in long, multimodel control runs from state-of-the-art climate models. Components with decadal predictability have large APT, so maximizing APT ensures that components with decadal predictability will be detected. Optimal fingerprinting techniques, as used in detection and attribution analysis, will be used to separate variations due to natural and anthropogenic forcing from those due to unforced decadal predictability. This methodology will be applied to the decadal hindcasts generated by the CMIP5 project to assess the reliability of model projections. The question of whether anthropogenic forcing changes decadal predictability, or gives rise to new forms of decadal predictability, also will be investigated. |
| URL: | http://www.osti.gov/scitech/servlets/purl/1127130
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| Citation statistics: |
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| 资源类型: | 研究报告
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| 标识符: | http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/41552
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| Appears in Collections: | 过去全球变化的重建
影响、适应和脆弱性
科学计划与规划
气候变化与战略
全球变化的国际研究计划
气候减缓与适应
气候变化事实与影响
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| 1127130.pdf（262KB） | 研究报告 | -- | 开放获取 | | View
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作者单位: | Columbia University
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| Recommended Citation: | |
Tippett, Michael K.. Collaborative Research: Separating Forced and Unforced Decadal Predictability in Models and Observations. 2014-01-01.
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