DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0587.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85019987316
论文题名: Attributing causes of 2015 record minimum sea-ice extent in the Sea of Okhotsk
作者: Paik S. ; Min S.-K. ; Kim Y.-H. ; Kim B.-M. ; Shiogama H. ; Heo J.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2017
卷: 30, 期: 12 起始页码: 4693
结束页码: 4703
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Climate change
; Ice
; Linear regression
; Risk assessment
; Sea ice
; Anthropogenic effects
; Anthropogenic influence
; Climate variability
; Coupled Model Intercomparison Project
; Multi-Model Simulations
; Multiple linear regressions
; North Pacific Ocean
; Probability of occurrence
; Climate models
; anthropogenic effect
; climate change
; climate modeling
; extreme event
; oscillation
; sea ice
; trend analysis
; Pacific Ocean
; Pacific Ocean (North)
; Sea of Okhotsk
英文摘要: In 2015, the sea ice extent (SIE) over the Sea of Okhotsk (Okhotsk SIE) hit a record low since 1979 during February-March, the period when the sea ice extent generally reaches its annual maximum. To quantify the role of anthropogenic influences on the changes observed in Okhotsk SIE, this study employed a fraction of attributable risk (FAR) analysis to compare the probability of occurrence of extreme Okhotsk SIE events and long-term SIE trends using phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) multimodel simulations performed with and without anthropogenic forcing. It was found that because of anthropogenic influence, both the probability of extreme low Okhotsk SIEs that exceed the 2015 event and the observed long-term trends during 1979-2015 have increased by more than 4 times (FAR = 0.76 to 1). In addition, it is suggested that a strong negative phase of the North Pacific Oscillation (NPO) during midwinter (January-February) 2015 also contributed to the 2015 extreme SIE event. An analysis based on multiple linear regression was conducted to quantify relative contributions of the external forcing (anthropogenic plus natural) and the NPO (internal variability) to the observed SIE changes. About 56.0% and 24.7% of the 2015 SIE anomaly was estimated to be attributable to the external forcing and the strong negative NPO influence, respectively. The external forcing was also found to explain about 86.1% of the observed long-term SIE trend. Further, projections from the CMIP5 models indicate that a sea ice-free condition may occur in the Sea of Okhotsk by the late twenty-first century in some models. © 2017 American Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/48887
Appears in Collections: 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: Division of Environmental Science and Engineering, Pohang University of Science and Technology, Pohang, Gyeongbuk, South Korea; Korea Polar Research Institute, Incheon, South Korea; National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Japan; University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, United States
Recommended Citation:
Paik S.,Min S.-K.,Kim Y.-H.,et al. Attributing causes of 2015 record minimum sea-ice extent in the Sea of Okhotsk[J]. Journal of Climate,2017-01-01,30(12)