DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00224.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84949818975
论文题名: Chances of short-term cooling estimated from a selection of CMIP5-based climate scenarios during 2006-35 over Canada
作者: Grenier P. ; De Elía R. ; Chaumont D.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2015
卷: 28, 期: 8 起始页码: 3232
结束页码: 3249
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Probability
; Annual temperatures
; Climate scenarios
; Climate simulation
; Geographical patterns
; Global climates
; Interannual variability
; Natural variability
; Negative temperatures
; Climate models
英文摘要: The path toward a warmer global climate is not smooth, but, rather, is made up of a succession of positive and negative temperature trends, with cooling having more chance to occur the shorter the time scale considered. In this paper, estimates of the probabilities of short-term cooling (Pcool) during the period 2006-35 are performed for 5146 locations across Canada. Probabilities of cooling over durations from 5 to 25 yr come from an ensemble of 60 climate scenarios, based on three different methods using a gridded observational product and CMIP5 climate simulations. These methods treat interannual variability differently, and an analysis in hindcast mode suggests they are relatively reliable. Unsurprisingly, longer durations imply smaller Pcool values; in the case of annual temperatures, the interdecile range of Pcool values across Canada is, for example, ~2%-18% for 25 yr and ~40%-46% for 5 yr. Results vary slightly with the scenario design method, with similar geographical patterns emerging. With regards to seasonal influence, spring and winter are generally associated with higher Pcool values. Geographical Pcool patterns and their seasonality are explained in terms of the interannual variability over background trend ratio. This study emphasizes the importance of natural variability superimposed on anthropogenically forced long-term trends and the fact that regional and local short-term cooling trends are to be expected with nonnegligible probabilities. © 2015 American Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/50906
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
There are no files associated with this item.
作者单位: Ouranos, Centre pour l'étude et la Simulation du Climat à l'échelle Régionale, Université du Québec à Montréal, Montréal, QC, Canada; Ouranos, Montréal, QC, Canada
Recommended Citation:
Grenier P.,De Elía R.,Chaumont D.. Chances of short-term cooling estimated from a selection of CMIP5-based climate scenarios during 2006-35 over Canada[J]. Journal of Climate,2015-01-01,28(8)