| DOI: | 10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00032.1
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| Scopus记录号: | 2-s2.0-84888035918
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| 论文题名: | Evaluation of historical diurnal temperature range trends in CMIP5 models |
| 作者: | Lewis S.C.; Karoly D.J.
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| 刊名: | Journal of Climate
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| ISSN: | 8948755
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| 出版年: | 2013
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| 卷: | 26, 期:22 | | 起始页码: | 9077
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| 结束页码: | 9089
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| 语种: | 英语
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| Scopus关键词: | Climate model simulations
; Coupled Model Intercomparison Project
; Coupled models
; Detection and attributions
; Diurnal temperature ranges
; Extreme events
; Historical simulation
; Trends
; Climate change
; Climate models
; Experiments
; Greenhouse gases
; Computer simulation
; air temperature
; climate change
; climate modeling
; cloud cover
; diurnal variation
; extreme event
; general circulation model
; land surface
; trend analysis
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| 英文摘要: | Diurnal temperature range (DTR) is a useful index of climatic change in addition to mean temperature changes. Observational records indicate that DTR has decreased over the last 50 yr because of differential changes in minimum and maximum temperatures. However, modeled changes in DTR in previous climate model simulations of this period are smaller than those observed, primarily because of an overestimate of changes in maximum temperatures. This present study examines DTR trends using the latest generation of global climate models participating in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) and utilizes the novel CMIP5 detection and attribution experimental design of variously forced historical simulations (natural-only, greenhouse gas-only, and all anthropogenic and natural forcings). Comparison of observed and modeled changes in DTR over the period of 1951-2005 again reveals that global DTR trends are lower in model simulations than observed across the 27-member multimodel ensemble analyzed here. Modeled DTR trends are similar for both experiments incorporating all forcings and for the historical experiment with greenhouse gases only, while no DTR trend is discernible in the naturally forced historical experiment. The persistent underestimate of DTR changes in this latest multimodel evaluation appears to be related to ubiquitous model deficiencies in cloud cover and land surface processes that impact the accurate simulation of regional minimum or maximum temperatures changes observed during this period. Different model processes are likely responsible for subdued simulated DTR trends over the various analyzed regions. © 2013 American Meteorological Society. |
| 资助项目: | NCI, National Cancer Institute
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| Citation statistics: |
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| 资源类型: | 期刊论文
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| 标识符: | http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/51570
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| Appears in Collections: | 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: | School of Earth Sciences, ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, VIC, Australia
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| Recommended Citation: | |
Lewis S.C.,Karoly D.J.. Evaluation of historical diurnal temperature range trends in CMIP5 models[J]. Journal of Climate,2013-01-01,26(22)
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