| DOI: | 10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00738.1
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| Scopus记录号: | 2-s2.0-84884926598
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| 论文题名: | Wave extremes in the northeast Atlantic from ensemble forecasts |
| 作者: | Breivik Ø.; Aarnes O.J.; Bidlot J.-R.; Carrasco A.; Saetra Ø.
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| 刊名: | Journal of Climate
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| ISSN: | 8948755
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| 出版年: | 2013
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| 卷: | 26, 期:19 | | 起始页码: | 7525
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| 结束页码: | 7540
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| 语种: | 英语
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| Scopus关键词: | Ensembles
; Probability forecasts/models/distribution
; Reanalysis
; Sea/ocean surfaces
; Statistical techniques
; Wind wave
; Forecasting
; Upper atmosphere
; Climate models
; air-sea interaction
; climate modeling
; ensemble forecasting
; estimation method
; hindcasting
; ocean wave
; probability
; significant wave height
; statistical analysis
; wind wave
; Arctic Ocean
; Atlantic Ocean
; Atlantic Ocean (Northeast)
; North Sea
; Norwegian Sea
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| 英文摘要: | A method for estimating return values from ensembles of forecasts at advanced lead times is presented. Return values of significant wave height in the northeast Atlantic, the Norwegian Sea, and the North Sea are computed from archived +240-h forecasts of the ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) from 1999 to 2009. Three assumptions are made: First, each forecast is representative of a 6-h interval and collectively the dataset is then comparable to a time period of 226 years. Second, the model climate matches the observed distribution, which is confirmed by comparing with buoy data. Third, the ensemble members are sufficiently uncorrelated to be considered independent realizations of the model climate. Anomaly correlations of 0.20 are found, but peak events (>P97) are entirely uncorrelated. By comparing return values from individual members with return values of subsamples of the dataset it is also found that the estimates follow the same distribution and appear unaffected by correlations in the ensemble. The annual mean and variance over the 11-yr archived period exhibit no significant departures from stationarity compared with a recent reforecast; that is, there is no spurious trend because of model upgrades. The EPS yields significantly higher return values than the 40-yr ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-40) and ECMWF Interim Re-Analysis (ERA-Interim) and is in good agreement with the high-resolution 10-km Norwegian Reanalyses (NORA10) hindcast, except in the lee of unresolved islands where EPS overestimates and in enclosed seas where it has low bias. Confidence intervals are half the width of those found for ERA-Interim because of the magnitude of the dataset. © 2013 American Meteorological Society. |
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| 资源类型: | 期刊论文
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| 标识符: | http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/51635
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| Appears in Collections: | 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: | European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading, United Kingdom; Norwegian Meteorological Institute, Oslo, Norway
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| Recommended Citation: | |
Breivik Ø.,Aarnes O.J.,Bidlot J.-R.,et al. Wave extremes in the northeast Atlantic from ensemble forecasts[J]. Journal of Climate,2013-01-01,26(19)
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