DOI: 10.1007/s00382-016-3188-2
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84969993130
论文题名: An ENSO prediction approach based on ocean conditions and ocean–atmosphere coupling
作者: Tseng Y.-H. ; Hu Z.-Z. ; Ding R. ; Chen H.-C.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2017
卷: 48, 期: 2017-05-06 起始页码: 2025
结束页码: 2044
语种: 英语
英文关键词: ENSO prediction
; North Pacific
; Tropical atmosphere ocean (TAO) array
英文摘要: A simple statistical model for the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) prediction is derived based on the evolution of the ocean heat condition and the oceanic Kelvin wave propagation associated with westerly wind events (WWEs) and easterly wind surges (EWSs) in the tropical Pacific. The multivariate linear regression model solely relies on the pentad thermocline depth anomaly evolution in 25 days along with the zonal surface wind modulation. It successfully hindcasts all ENSOs except for the 2000/01 La Niña, using the pentad (or monthly) mean tropical atmosphere ocean array data since 1994 with an averaged skill (measured by anomaly correlation) of 0.62 (or 0.67) with a 6-month lead. The exception is mainly due to the long-lasting cold sea surface temperature anomalies in the subtropics resulting from the strong 1998/99 La Niña, even though the tropical warm water volume (WWV) had rebounded and turned phases after 2000. We also note that the hindcast skill is comparable using pentad or monthly mean NCEP global ocean data assimilation system data for the same time period. The hindcast skill of the proposed statistical model is better than that based on the WWV index in terms of the monthly correlation, normalized RMSEs and ENSO occurrences, which suggest that including the evolution of the subsurface ocean temperature anomaly and the WWEs/EWSs in the central tropical Pacific can enhance the ability to predict ENSO. The hindcast skill is also comparable to the predictions using other dynamical and statistical models, indicating that these processes are the keys to ENSO development. The dynamics behind the statistical model are consistent with the physical processes of ENSO development as follows: the tropical WWV resulting from the interannually-varying meridional subtropical cell transport provides a sufficient heat source. When the seasonal phase lock of ocean–atmosphere coupling triggers the positive (negative) zonal wind anomaly in boreal summer and fall, an El Niño (a La Niña) will develop as evidenced by the Kelvin wave propagation. The triggering dynamic may be suppressed or enhanced by the influence of extratropical Pacific sea surface temperature. © 2016, Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg. 资助项目: GEO, Directorate for Geosciences
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/53305
Appears in Collections: 过去全球变化的重建
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作者单位: Climate and Global Dynamics Division, National Center for Atmospheric Research, 1850 Table Mesa Dr, Boulder, CO, United States; Climate Prediction Center, NCEP/NWS/NOAA, College Park, MD, United States; State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics (LASG), Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China; Department of Atmospheric Sciences, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan
Recommended Citation:
Tseng Y.-H.,Hu Z.-Z.,Ding R.,et al. An ENSO prediction approach based on ocean conditions and ocean–atmosphere coupling[J]. Climate Dynamics,2017-01-01,48(2017-05-06)