DOI: 10.1007/s00382-015-2898-1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84949510466
论文题名: Decadal prediction skill in the ocean with surface nudging in the IPSL-CM5A-LR climate model
作者: Mignot J. ; García-Serrano J. ; Swingedouw D. ; Germe A. ; Nguyen S. ; Ortega P. ; Guilyardi E. ; Ray S.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2016
卷: 47, 期: 2017-03-04 起始页码: 1225
结束页码: 1246
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Decadal variability
; Oceanic predictability
; Surface nudging
英文摘要: Two decadal prediction ensembles, based on the same climate model (IPSL-CM5A-LR) and the same surface nudging initialization strategy are analyzed and compared with a focus on upper-ocean variables in different regions of the globe. One ensemble consists of 3-member hindcasts launched every year since 1961 while the other ensemble benefits from 9 members but with start dates only every 5 years. Analysis includes anomaly correlation coefficients and root mean square errors computed against several reanalysis and gridded observational fields, as well as against the nudged simulation used to produce the hindcasts initial conditions. The last skill measure gives an upper limit of the predictability horizon one can expect in the forecast system, while the comparison with different datasets highlights uncertainty when assessing the actual skill. Results provide a potential prediction skill (verification against the nudged simulation) beyond the linear trend of the order of 10 years ahead at the global scale, but essentially associated with non-linear radiative forcings, in particular from volcanoes. At regional scale, we obtain 1 year in the tropical band, 10 years at midlatitudes in the North Atlantic and North Pacific, and 5 years at tropical latitudes in the North Atlantic, for both sea surface temperature (SST) and upper-ocean heat content. Actual prediction skill (verified against observational or reanalysis data) is overall more limited and less robust. Even so, large actual skill is found in the extratropical North Atlantic for SST and in the tropical to subtropical North Pacific for upper-ocean heat content. Results are analyzed with respect to the specific dynamics of the model and the way it is influenced by the nudging. The interplay between initialization and internal modes of variability is also analyzed for sea surface salinity. The study illustrates the importance of two key ingredients both necessary for the success of future coordinated decadal prediction exercises, a high frequency of start dates is needed to achieve robust statistical significance, and a large ensemble size is required to increase the signal to noise ratio. © 2015, Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/53589
Appears in Collections: 过去全球变化的重建
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作者单位: Climate and Environmental Physics, Physics Institute, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland; Oeschger Center for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland; LOCEAN/IPSL (Sorbonne Universités UPMC-CNRS-IRD-MNHN), 4 place Jussieu, Paris, France; Environnements et Paléoenvironnements Océaniques et Continentaux (EPOC), UMR CNRS 5805 EPOC - OASU - Université de Bordeaux, Allée Geoffroy Saint-Hilaire, Pessac, France; NCAS-Climate, Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom; NCAS-Climate, Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom; Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences Program, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, United States
Recommended Citation:
Mignot J.,García-Serrano J.,Swingedouw D.,et al. Decadal prediction skill in the ocean with surface nudging in the IPSL-CM5A-LR climate model[J]. Climate Dynamics,2016-01-01,47(2017-03-04)