DOI: 10.1007/s00382-015-2591-4
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84955466620
论文题名: A simple model perturbed physics study of the simulated climate sensitivity uncertainty and its relation to control climate biases
作者: Dommenget D.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2016
卷: 46, 期: 2017-01-02 起始页码: 427
结束页码: 447
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Climate dynamics
; Climate models
; Climate sensitivity
; Model errors
; Perturbed physics
; Simple climate model
英文摘要: In this study the relationship between climate model biases in the control climate and the simulated climate sensitivity are discussed on the basis of perturbed physics ensemble simulations with a globally resolved energy balance (GREB) model. It is illustrated that the uncertainties in the simulated climate sensitivity (estimated by the transient response to CO2 forcing scenarios in the twenty first century or idealized 2 × CO2 forcing experiments) can be conceptually split into two parts: a direct effect of the perturbed physics on the climate sensitivity independent of the control mean climate and an indirect effect of the perturbed physics by changing the control mean climate, which in turn changes the climate sensitivity, as the climate sensitivity itself is depending on the control climate. Biases in the control climate are negatively correlated with the climate sensitivity (colder climates have larger sensitivities), if no physics are perturbed. Perturbed physics that lead to warmer control climate, would in average also lead to larger climate sensitivities, if the control climate is held at the observed reference climate by flux corrections. Thus the effects of control biases and perturbed physics are opposing each other and are partially cancelling each other out. In the GREB model the biases in the control climate are the more important effect for the regional climate sensitivity uncertainties, but for the global mean climate sensitivity both, the biases in the control climate and the perturbed physics, are equally important. © 2015, Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg. 资助项目: ARC, Australian Respiratory Council
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/53865
Appears in Collections: 过去全球变化的重建
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作者单位: School of Earth, Atmosphere and Environment, Monash University, Clayton, Australia
Recommended Citation:
Dommenget D.. A simple model perturbed physics study of the simulated climate sensitivity uncertainty and its relation to control climate biases[J]. Climate Dynamics,2016-01-01,46(2017-01-02)