DOI: 10.1007/s00382-015-2586-1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84955463596
论文题名: Regional Arctic sea ice variations as predictor for winter climate conditions
作者: Koenigk T. ; Caian M. ; Nikulin G. ; Schimanke S.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2016
卷: 46, 期: 2017-01-02 起始页码: 317
结束页码: 337
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Arctic climate
; Arctic–midlatitude interaction
; Regional sea ice variations
; Seasonal prediction
英文摘要: Seasonal prediction skill of winter mid and high northern latitudes climate from sea ice variations in eight different Arctic regions is analyzed using detrended ERA-interim data and satellite sea ice data for the period 1980–2013. We find significant correlations between ice areas in both September and November and winter sea level pressure, air temperature and precipitation. The prediction skill is improved when using November sea ice conditions as predictor compared to September. This is particularly true for predicting winter NAO-like patterns and blocking situations in the Euro-Atlantic area. We find that sea ice variations in Barents Sea seem to be most important for the sign of the following winter NAO—negative after low ice—but amplitude and extension of the patterns are modulated by Greenland and Labrador Seas ice areas. November ice variability in the Greenland Sea provides the best prediction skill for central and western European temperature and ice variations in the Laptev/East Siberian Seas have the largest impact on the blocking number in the Euro-Atlantic region. Over North America, prediction skill is largest using September ice areas from the Pacific Arctic sector as predictor. Composite analyses of high and low regional autumn ice conditions reveal that the atmospheric response is not entirely linear suggesting changing predictive skill dependent on sign and amplitude of the anomaly. The results confirm the importance of realistic sea ice initial conditions for seasonal forecasts. However, correlations do seldom exceed 0.6 indicating that Arctic sea ice variations can only explain a part of winter climate variations in northern mid and high latitudes. © 2015, The Author(s). 资助项目: SMHI, NordForsk
; NordForsk
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/53888
Appears in Collections: 过去全球变化的重建
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作者单位: Rossby Centre, Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, Norrköping, Sweden; Department of Meteorology, Bert Bolin Centre for Climate Research, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden; Swedish e-Science Research Centre, Stockholm, Sweden; Oceanography Research Unit, Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, Norrköping, Sweden
Recommended Citation:
Koenigk T.,Caian M.,Nikulin G.,et al. Regional Arctic sea ice variations as predictor for winter climate conditions[J]. Climate Dynamics,2016-01-01,46(2017-01-02)