globalchange  > 过去全球变化的重建
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-012-1600-0
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84888065733
论文题名:
Real-time multi-model decadal climate predictions
作者: Smith D.M.; Scaife A.A.; Boer G.J.; Caian M.; Doblas-Reyes F.J.; Guemas V.; Hawkins E.; Hazeleger W.; Hermanson L.; Ho C.K.; Ishii M.; Kharin V.; Kimoto M.; Kirtman B.; Lean J.; Matei D.; Merryfield W.J.; Müller W.A.; Pohlmann H.; Rosati A.; Wouters B.; Wyser K.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2013
卷: 41, 期:2017-11-12
起始页码: 2875
结束页码: 2888
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Decadal climate prediction ; Forecast ; Multi-model ensemble
英文摘要: We present the first climate prediction of the coming decade made with multiple models, initialized with prior observations. This prediction accrues from an international activity to exchange decadal predictions in near real-time, in order to assess differences and similarities, provide a consensus view to prevent over-confidence in forecasts from any single model, and establish current collective capability. We stress that the forecast is experimental, since the skill of the multi-model system is as yet unknown. Nevertheless, the forecast systems used here are based on models that have undergone rigorous evaluation and individually have been evaluated for forecast skill. Moreover, it is important to publish forecasts to enable open evaluation, and to provide a focus on climate change in the coming decade. Initialized forecasts of the year 2011 agree well with observations, with a pattern correlation of 0.62 compared to 0.31 for uninitialized projections. In particular, the forecast correctly predicted La Niña in the Pacific, and warm conditions in the north Atlantic and USA. A similar pattern is predicted for 2012 but with a weaker La Niña. Indices of Atlantic multi-decadal variability and Pacific decadal variability show no signal beyond climatology after 2015, while temperature in the Niño3 region is predicted to warm slightly by about 0.5 °C over the coming decade. However, uncertainties are large for individual years and initialization has little impact beyond the first 4 years in most regions. Relative to uninitialized forecasts, initialized forecasts are significantly warmer in the north Atlantic sub-polar gyre and cooler in the north Pacific throughout the decade. They are also significantly cooler in the global average and over most land and ocean regions out to several years ahead. However, in the absence of volcanic eruptions, global temperature is predicted to continue to rise, with each year from 2013 onwards having a 50 % chance of exceeding the current observed record. Verification of these forecasts will provide an important opportunity to test the performance of models and our understanding and knowledge of the drivers of climate change. © 2012 Crown Copyright.
资助项目: NOAA, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration ; NOAA, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/54709
Appears in Collections:过去全球变化的重建

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作者单位: Met Office Hadley Centre, FitzRoy Road, Exeter, EX1 3PB, United Kingdom; Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Environment Canada, VIC, BC, Canada; Rossby Centre, Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, 60176 Norrköping, Sweden; Institut Català de Ciències del Clima, Carrer del Doctor Trueta, 203, 08005 Barcelona, Spain; NCAS-Climate, Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, RG6 6BB, United Kingdom; Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), De Bilt, Netherlands; Meteorological Research Institute, Japan Meteorological Agency, Tsukuba, 305-0052, Japan; Atmosphere and Ocean Research Institute, University of Tokyo, Kashiwa, 277-8568, Japan; RSMAS/MPO, University of Miami, 4600 Rickenbacker Causeway, Miami, FL, 33149, United States; Space Science Division, Naval Research Laboratory, WA, DC, 20375, United States; Max-Planck-Institut für Meteorologie, Bundesstraße 53, 20146 Hamburg, Germany; Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, United States; Wageningen University, Wageningen, Netherlands

Recommended Citation:
Smith D.M.,Scaife A.A.,Boer G.J.,et al. Real-time multi-model decadal climate predictions[J]. Climate Dynamics,2013-01-01,41(2017-11-12)
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