globalchange  > 过去全球变化的重建
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-013-1714-z
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84886727586
论文题名:
The simulation of European heat waves from an ensemble of regional climate models within the EURO-CORDEX project
作者: Vautard R.; Gobiet A.; Jacob D.; Belda M.; Colette A.; Déqué M.; Fernández J.; García-Díez M.; Goergen K.; Güttler I.; Halenka T.; Karacostas T.; Katragkou E.; Keuler K.; Kotlarski S.; Mayer S.; van Meijgaard E.; Nikulin G.; Patarčić M.; Scinocca J.; Sobolowski S.; Suklitsch M.; Teichmann C.; Warrach-Sagi K.; Wulfmeyer V.; Yiou P.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2013
卷: 41, 期:2017-09-10
起始页码: 2555
结束页码: 2575
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Climate projection ; EURO-CORDEX ; Heat waves ; Model evaluation ; Regional climate modeling
英文摘要: The ability of a large ensemble of regional climate models to accurately simulate heat waves at the regional scale of Europe was evaluated. Within the EURO-CORDEX project, several state-of-the art models, including non-hydrostatic meso-scale models, were run for an extended time period (20 years) at high resolution (12 km), over a large domain allowing for the first time the simultaneous representation of atmospheric phenomena over a large range of spatial scales. Eight models were run in this configuration, and thirteen models were run at a classical resolution of 50 km. The models were driven with the same boundary conditions, the ERA-Interim re-analysis, and except for one simulation, no observations were assimilated in the inner domain. Results, which are compared with daily temperature and precipitation observations (ECA&D and E-OBS data sets) show that, even forced by the same re-analysis, the ensemble exhibits a large spread. A preliminary analysis of the sources of spread, using in particular simulations of the same model with different parameterizations, shows that the simulation of hot temperature is primarily sensitive to the convection and the microphysics schemes, which affect incoming energy and the Bowen ratio. Further, most models exhibit an overestimation of summertime temperature extremes in Mediterranean regions and an underestimation over Scandinavia. Even after bias removal, the simulated heat wave events were found to be too persistent, but a higher resolution reduced this deficiency. The amplitude of events as well as the variability beyond the 90th percentile threshold were found to be too strong in almost all simulations and increasing resolution did not generally improve this deficiency. Resolution increase was also shown to induce large-scale 90th percentile warming or cooling for some models, with beneficial or detrimental effects on the overall biases. Even though full causality cannot be established on the basis of this evaluation work, the drivers of such regional differences were shown to be linked to changes in precipitation due to resolution changes, affecting the energy partitioning. Finally, the inter-annual sequence of hot summers over central/southern Europe was found to be fairly well simulated in most experiments despite an overestimation of the number of hot days and of the variability. The accurate simulation of inter-annual variability for a few models is independent of the model bias. This indicates that internal variability of high summer temperatures should not play a major role in controlling inter-annual variability. Despite some improvements, especially along coastlines, the analyses conducted here did not allow us to generally conclude that a higher resolution is clearly beneficial for a correct representation of heat waves by regional climate models. Even though local-scale feedbacks should be better represented at high resolution, combinations of parameterizations have to be improved or adapted accordingly. © 2013 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg.
资助项目: DFG, Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/54725
Appears in Collections:过去全球变化的重建

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作者单位: Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, IPSL, CEA/CNRS/UVSQ, Gif sur Yvette, France; Wegener Cntr. for Climate and Global Change and Inst. for Geophysics, Astrophysics, and Meteorology, University of Graz, Graz, Austria; Climate Service Center, Hamburg, Germany; Department of Meteorology and Environment Protection, Charles University, Prague, Czech Republic; Institut National de l'Environnement industriel et des risques (INERIS), Verneuil en Halatte, France; Météo-France/CNRM, CNRS/GAME, Toulouse, France; Department Applied Mathematics and Computer Science, Universidad de Cantabria, Santander, Spain; Instituto de Física de Cantabria, CSIC-UC, Santander, Spain; Centre de Recherche Public-Gabriel Lippmann, Belvaux, Luxembourg; Croatian Meteorological and Hydrological Service (DHMZ), Zagreb, Croatia; Department of Meteorology and Climatology, School of Geology, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, 54124 Thessaloniki, Greece; Chair of Environmental Meteorology, Brandenburg University of Technology (BTU) Cottbus, Cottbus, Germany; Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland; Uni Research, Bjerknes Center for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway; Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, Norrköping, Sweden; Environment Canada, Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Victoria, BC, Canada; Max-Planck-Institut für Meteorologie, Hamburg, Germany; Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), De Bilt, Netherlands; Institute of Physics and Meteorology, University of Hohenheim, Stuttgart, Germany

Recommended Citation:
Vautard R.,Gobiet A.,Jacob D.,et al. The simulation of European heat waves from an ensemble of regional climate models within the EURO-CORDEX project[J]. Climate Dynamics,2013-01-01,41(2017-09-10)
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