DOI: 10.1007/s00382-012-1466-1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84876823228
论文题名: Decadal predictability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation and climate in the IPSL-CM5A-LR model
作者: Persechino A. ; Mignot J. ; Swingedouw D. ; Labetoulle S. ; Guilyardi E.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2013
卷: 40, 期: 2017-09-10 起始页码: 2359
结束页码: 2380
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Atlantic meridional overturning circulation
; Decadal climate predictability
; Diagnostic and prognostic potential predictability
; Ocean and climate dynamics
英文摘要: This study explores the decadal potential predictability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) as represented in the IPSL-CM5A-LR model, along with the predictability of associated oceanic and atmospheric fields. Using a 1000-year control run, we analyze the prognostic potential predictability (PPP) of the AMOC through ensembles of simulations with perturbed initial conditions. Based on a measure of the ensemble spread, the modelled AMOC has an average predictive skill of 8 years, with some degree of dependence on the AMOC initial state. Diagnostic potential predictability of surface temperature and precipitation is also identified in the control run and compared to the PPP. Both approaches clearly bring out the same regions exhibiting the highest predictive skill. Generally, surface temperature has the highest skill up to 2 decades in the far North Atlantic ocean. There are also weak signals over a few oceanic areas in the tropics and subtropics. Predictability over land is restricted to the coastal areas bordering oceanic predictable regions. Potential predictability at interannual and longer timescales is largely absent for precipitation in spite of weak signals identified mainly in the Nordic Seas. Regions of weak signals show some dependence on AMOC initial state. All the identified regions are closely linked to decadal AMOC fluctuations suggesting that the potential predictability of climate arises from the mechanisms controlling these fluctuations. Evidence for dependence on AMOC initial state also suggests that studying skills from case studies may prove more useful to understand predictability mechanisms than computing average skill from numerous start dates. © 2012 Springer-Verlag. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/55063
Appears in Collections: 过去全球变化的重建
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作者单位: School of Ocean and Earth Science, University of Southampton, European Way, Southampton, Hampshire, SO14 3ZH, United Kingdom; Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace/LOCEAN, Jussieu, Paris, France; Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace/LSCE, Gif-sur-Yvette, CEA Saclay, Orme des Merisiers, France; NCAS-Climate, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom
Recommended Citation:
Persechino A.,Mignot J.,Swingedouw D.,et al. Decadal predictability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation and climate in the IPSL-CM5A-LR model[J]. Climate Dynamics,2013-01-01,40(2017-09-10)