DOI: 10.1016/j.accre.2017.05.007
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85020472094
论文题名: Impacts of climate change on agricultural water resources and adaptation on the North China Plain
作者: Mo X.-G. ; Hu S. ; Lin Z.-H. ; Liu S.-X. ; Xia J.
刊名: Advances in Climate Change Research
ISSN: 16749278
出版年: 2017
卷: 8, 期: 2 起始页码: 93
结束页码: 98
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Adaptation measures
; Agriculture
; Climate change
; Water resources
英文摘要: Climate change is having a considerable impact on the availability of water resources for agricultural production on the North China Plain (NCP), where the shortage of water is currently disturbing the stability and sustainability of agricultural production with respect to the drying tendency since the 1950s. However, although potential evapotranspiration (ET) has shown a decreasing trend under climate change, actual ET has slightly increased with an acceleration in hydrological cycling. Global climate model (GCM) ensemble projections predict that by the 2050s, the increased crop water demand and intensified ET resulting from global warming will reduce water resources surplus (Precipitation–ET) about 4%–24% and increase significantly the irrigation water demand in crop growth periods. This study assesses possible mitigation and adaptation measures for enabling agricultural sustainability. It is revealed that reducing the sowing area of winter wheat (3.0%–15.9%) in water-limited basins, together with improvement in crop water-use efficiency would effectively mitigate water shortages and intensify the resilience of agricultural systems to climate change. © 2017 National Climate Center (China Meteorological Administration) 资助项目: National Natural Science Foundation of China
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/58801
Appears in Collections: 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: Key Laboratory of Water Cycle & Related Land Surface Processes, Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China; College of Resources and Environment/SDC College, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China; State Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Science, Wuhan University, Wuhan, China
Recommended Citation:
Mo X.-G.,Hu S.,Lin Z.-H.,et al. Impacts of climate change on agricultural water resources and adaptation on the North China Plain[J]. Advances in Climate Change Research,2017-01-01,8(2)