globalchange  > 影响、适应和脆弱性
DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13337
论文题名:
Hotspots of uncertainty in land-use and land-cover change projections: a global-scale model comparison
作者: Prestele R.; Alexander P.; Rounsevell M.D.A.; Arneth A.; Calvin K.; Doelman J.; Eitelberg D.A.; Engström K.; Fujimori S.; Hasegawa T.; Havlik P.; Humpenöder F.; Jain A.K.; Krisztin T.; Kyle P.; Meiyappan P.; Popp A.; Sands R.D.; Schaldach R.; Schüngel J.; Stehfest E.; Tabeau A.; Van Meijl H.; Van Vliet J.; Verburg P.H.
刊名: Global Change Biology
ISSN: 13541013
出版年: 2016
卷: 22, 期:12
起始页码: 3967
结束页码: 3983
语种: 英语
英文关键词: land-use allocation ; land-use change ; land-use model uncertainty ; map comparison ; model intercomparison ; model variation
Scopus关键词: biodiversity ; climate conditions ; comparative study ; environmental impact assessment ; land cover ; land use change ; modeling ; uncertainty analysis ; water resource ; biodiversity ; ecosystem ; environmental protection ; theoretical model ; uncertainty ; Biodiversity ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; Ecosystem ; Models, Theoretical ; Uncertainty
英文摘要: Model-based global projections of future land-use and land-cover (LULC) change are frequently used in environmental assessments to study the impact of LULC change on environmental services and to provide decision support for policy. These projections are characterized by a high uncertainty in terms of quantity and allocation of projected changes, which can severely impact the results of environmental assessments. In this study, we identify hotspots of uncertainty, based on 43 simulations from 11 global-scale LULC change models representing a wide range of assumptions of future biophysical and socioeconomic conditions. We attribute components of uncertainty to input data, model structure, scenario storyline and a residual term, based on a regression analysis and analysis of variance. From this diverse set of models and scenarios, we find that the uncertainty varies, depending on the region and the LULC type under consideration. Hotspots of uncertainty appear mainly at the edges of globally important biomes (e.g., boreal and tropical forests). Our results indicate that an important source of uncertainty in forest and pasture areas originates from different input data applied in the models. Cropland, in contrast, is more consistent among the starting conditions, while variation in the projections gradually increases over time due to diverse scenario assumptions and different modeling approaches. Comparisons at the grid cell level indicate that disagreement is mainly related to LULC type definitions and the individual model allocation schemes. We conclude that improving the quality and consistency of observational data utilized in the modeling process and improving the allocation mechanisms of LULC change models remain important challenges. Current LULC representation in environmental assessments might miss the uncertainty arising from the diversity of LULC change modeling approaches, and many studies ignore the uncertainty in LULC projections in assessments of LULC change impacts on climate, water resources or biodiversity. © 2016 The Authors. Global Change Biology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/61252
Appears in Collections:影响、适应和脆弱性

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作者单位: Environmental Geography Group, Department of Earth Sciences, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, De Boelelaan 1087, Amsterdam, Netherlands; School of GeoSciences, University of Edinburgh, Drummond Street, Edinburgh, United Kingdom; Department Atmospheric Environmental Research (IMK-IFU), Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Kreuzeckbahnstr. 19, Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany; Joint Global Change Research Institute, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, College Park, MD, United States; PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, P.O. Box 303, AH Bilthoven, Netherlands; Department of Geography and Ecosystem Science, Lund University, Sölvegatan 12, Lund, Sweden; Center for Social and Environmental Systems Research, National Institute for Environmental Studies, 16-2 Onogawa, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan; Ecosystem Services and Management Program, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria; Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), P.O. Box 60 12 03, Potsdam, Germany; Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Illinois, Urbana, IL, United States; Resource and Rural Economics Division, Economic Research Service, US Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC, United States; Center for Environmental Systems Research, University of Kassel, Wilhelmshöher Allee 47, Kassel, Germany; LEI, Wageningen University and Research Centre, P.O. Box 29703, LS The Hague, Netherlands; Swiss Federal Research Institute WSL, Zürcherstrasse 111, Birmensdorf, Switzerland

Recommended Citation:
Prestele R.,Alexander P.,Rounsevell M.D.A.,et al. Hotspots of uncertainty in land-use and land-cover change projections: a global-scale model comparison[J]. Global Change Biology,2016-01-01,22(12)
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