globalchange  > 影响、适应和脆弱性
DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13097
论文题名:
Continent-scale global change attribution in European birds - combining annual and decadal time scales
作者: Jørgensen P.S.; Böhning-Gaese K.; Thorup K.; Tøttrup A.P.; Chylarecki P.; Jiguet F.; Lehikoinen A.; Noble D.G.; Reif J.; Schmid H.; van Turnhout C.; Burfield I.J.; Foppen R.; Voříšek P.; van Strien A.; Gregory R.D.; Rahbek C.
刊名: Global Change Biology
ISSN: 13541013
出版年: 2016
卷: 22, 期:2
起始页码: 530
结束页码: 543
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Citizen science ; Climate change ; Farmland birds ; Global change attribution ; Land-use change ; Multiple temporal scales ; Multiscale inference ; Population time series
Scopus关键词: Aves ; agriculture ; animal ; biodiversity ; bird ; climate change ; diet ; Europe ; population density ; population migration ; reproduction ; season ; theoretical model ; Agriculture ; Animal Migration ; Animals ; Biodiversity ; Birds ; Climate Change ; Diet ; Europe ; Models, Theoretical ; Population Density ; Reproduction ; Seasons
英文摘要: Species attributes are commonly used to infer impacts of environmental change on multiyear species trends, e.g. decadal changes in population size. However, by themselves attributes are of limited value in global change attribution since they do not measure the changing environment. A broader foundation for attributing species responses to global change may be achieved by complementing an attributes-based approach by one estimating the relationship between repeated measures of organismal and environmental changes over short time scales. To assess the benefit of this multiscale perspective, we investigate the recent impact of multiple environmental changes on European farmland birds, here focusing on climate change and land use change. We analyze more than 800 time series from 18 countries spanning the past two decades. Analysis of long-term population growth rates documents simultaneous responses that can be attributed to both climate change and land-use change, including long-term increases in populations of hot-dwelling species and declines in long-distance migrants and farmland specialists. In contrast, analysis of annual growth rates yield novel insights into the potential mechanisms driving long-term climate induced change. In particular, we find that birds are affected by winter, spring, and summer conditions depending on the distinct breeding phenology that corresponds to their migratory strategy. Birds in general benefit from higher temperatures or higher primary productivity early on or in the peak of the breeding season with the largest effect sizes observed in cooler parts of species' climatic ranges. Our results document the potential of combining time scales and integrating both species attributes and environmental variables for global change attribution. We suggest such an approach will be of general use when high-resolution time series are available in large-scale biodiversity surveys. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/61486
Appears in Collections:影响、适应和脆弱性

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作者单位: Center for Macroecology, Evolution and Climate, Department of Biology, University of Copenhagen, Universitetsparken 15, Copenhagen, Denmark; Biodiversity and Climate Research Centre (BiK-F) and Senckenberg Gesellschaft fur Naturforschung, Senckenberganlage 25, Frankfurt (Main), Germany; Department of Biological Sciences, Goethe Universität, Max-von-Laue-Straße 9, Frankfurt (Main), Germany; Center for Macroecology, Evolution and Climate, Natural History Museum of Denmark, University of Copenhagen, Universitetsparken 15, Copenhagen, Denmark; Museum and Institute of Zoology, Polish Academy of Sciences, Wilcza 64, Warszawa, Poland; UMR7204 MNHN-CNRS-UPMC, CRBPO CP51, 55 Rue Buffon, Paris, France; Zoological Unit, Finnish Museum of Natural History, University of Helsinki, P. O. Box 17 FI-00014, Helsinki, Finland; British Trust for Ornithology, The Nunnery, Thetford, Norfolk, United Kingdom; Department of Zoology and Laboratory of Ornithology, Faculty of Science, Palacký University Olomouc, 17. listopadu 50, Olomouc, Czech Republic; Swiss Ornithological Institute, Seerose 1, Sempach, Switzerland; Sovon Dutch Centre for Field Ornithology, Nijmegen GA, Netherlands; Department of Animal Ecology, Institute for Wetland and Water Research, Radboud University Nijmegen, Toernooiveld 1, Nijmegen, Netherlands; BirdLife International, Wellbrook Court, Girton Road, Cambridge, United Kingdom; Dutch Centre for Field Ornithology, Nijmegen GA, Netherlands; European Bird Census Council (EBCC), Nijmegen GA, Netherlands; Pan-European Common Bird Monitoring Scheme, Czech Society for Ornithology, Na Bělidle 252/34, Prague 5, Czech Republic; Statistics Netherlands, Post Office Box 24500, The Hague, Netherlands; Royal Society for the Protection of Birds, The Lodge, Sandy, United Kingdom

Recommended Citation:
Jørgensen P.S.,Böhning-Gaese K.,Thorup K.,et al. Continent-scale global change attribution in European birds - combining annual and decadal time scales[J]. Global Change Biology,2016-01-01,22(2)
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