DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13075
论文题名: Past and future evolution of Abies alba forests in Europe - comparison of a dynamic vegetation model with palaeo data and observations
作者: Ruosch M. ; Spahni R. ; Joos F. ; Henne P.D. ; van der Knaap W.O. ; Tinner W.
刊名: Global Change Biology
ISSN: 13541013
出版年: 2016
卷: 22, 期: 2 起始页码: 727
结束页码: 740
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Abies alba
; Climate projections
; Deglaciation
; Dynamic global vegetation model
; Global warming
; Holocene
; Pollen data
; Vegetation dynamics
Scopus关键词: Abies alba
; Fagus
; Fagus sylvatica
; Picea
; Picea abies
; Abies
; climate change
; computer simulation
; Europe
; forecasting
; forest
; fossil
; growth, development and aging
; plant leaf
; pollen
; temperature
; theoretical model
; Abies
; Climate Change
; Computer Simulation
; Europe
; Forecasting
; Forests
; Fossils
; Models, Theoretical
; Plant Leaves
; Pollen
; Temperature
英文摘要: Information on how species distributions and ecosystem services are impacted by anthropogenic climate change is important for adaptation planning. Palaeo data suggest that Abies alba formed forests under significantly warmer-than-present conditions in Europe and might be a native substitute for widespread drought-sensitive temperate and boreal tree species such as beech (Fagus sylvatica) and spruce (Picea abies) under future global warming conditions. Here, we combine pollen and macrofossil data, modern observations, and results from transient simulations with the LPX-Bern dynamic global vegetation model to assess past and future distributions of A. alba in Europe. LPX-Bern is forced with climate anomalies from a run over the past 21 000 years with the Community Earth System Model, modern climatology, and with 21st-century multimodel ensemble results for the high-emission RCP8.5 and the stringent mitigation RCP2.6 pathway. The simulated distribution for present climate encompasses the modern range of A. alba, with the model exceeding the present distribution in north-western and southern Europe. Mid-Holocene pollen data and model results agree for southern Europe, suggesting that at present, human impacts suppress the distribution in southern Europe. Pollen and model results both show range expansion starting during the Bølling-Allerød warm period, interrupted by the Younger Dryas cold, and resuming during the Holocene. The distribution of A. alba expands to the north-east in all future scenarios, whereas the potential (currently unrealized) range would be substantially reduced in southern Europe under RCP8.5. A. alba maintains its current range in central Europe despite competition by other thermophilous tree species. Our combined palaeoecological and model evidence suggest that A. alba may ensure important ecosystem services including stand and slope stability, infrastructure protection, and carbon sequestration under significantly warmer-than-present conditions in central Europe. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/61513
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性
There are no files associated with this item.
作者单位: Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Falkenplatz 16, Bern, Switzerland; Climate and Environmental Physics, Physics Institute, University of Bern, Sidlerstrasse 5, Bern, Switzerland; Palaeoecology, Institute of Plant Sciences, University of Bern, Altenbergrain 21, Bern, Switzerland
Recommended Citation:
Ruosch M.,Spahni R.,Joos F.,et al. Past and future evolution of Abies alba forests in Europe - comparison of a dynamic vegetation model with palaeo data and observations[J]. Global Change Biology,2016-01-01,22(2)