DOI: 10.1111/gcb.12699
论文题名: Mass mortality events in atoll lagoons: Environmental control and increased future vulnerability
作者: Andréfouët S. ; Dutheil C. ; Menkes C.E. ; Bador M. ; Lengaigne M.
刊名: Global Change Biology
ISSN: 13541013
出版年: 2015
卷: 21, 期: 1 起始页码: 195
结束页码: 205
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Climate change
; CMIP-3
; CMIP-5
; Coral reef
; Dystrophy
; Pacific Ocean
; Sea surface temperature
; Significant wave height
; Wind stress
Scopus关键词: Anthozoa
; animal
; bivalve
; climate
; coral reef
; ecosystem
; environmental protection
; fish
; mortality
; Pacific islands
; Pacific Ocean
; physiology
; statistics and numerical data
; temperature
; theoretical model
; water flow
; water pollution
; weather
; wind
; Animals
; Bivalvia
; Climate
; Conservation of Natural Resources
; Coral Reefs
; Ecosystem
; Fishes
; Models, Theoretical
; Mortality
; Pacific Islands
; Pacific Ocean
; Temperature
; Water Movements
; Water Pollution
; Weather
; Wind
英文摘要: Coral reefs and lagoons worldwide are vulnerable environments. However, specific geomorphological reef types (fringing, barrier, atoll, bank for the main ones) can be vulnerable to specific disturbances that will not affect most other reefs. This has implications for local management and science priorities. Several geomorphologically closed atolls of the Pacific Ocean have experienced in recent decades mass benthic and pelagic lagoonal life mortalities, likely triggered by unusually calm weather conditions lasting for several weeks. These events, although poorly known, reported, and characterized, pose a major threat for resource sustainability. Based on a sample of eleven events on eight atolls from the central South Pacific occurring between 1993 and 2012, the conservative environmental thresholds required to trigger such events are identified using sea surface temperature, significant wave height and wind stress satellite data. Using these thresholds, spatial maps of potential risk are produced for the central South Pacific region, with the highest risk zone lying north of Tuamotu Archipelago. A regional climate model, which risk map compares well with observations over the recent period (r = 0.97), is then used to downscale the projected future climate. This allows us to estimate the potential change in risk by the end of the 21st century and highlights a relative risk increase of up to 60% for the eastern Tuamotu atolls. However, the small sample size used to train the analysis led to the identification of conservative thresholds that overestimated the observed risk. The results of this study suggest that long-term monitoring of the biophysical conditions of the lagoons at risk would enable more precise identification of the physical thresholds and better understanding of the biological processes involved in these rare, but consequential, mass mortality events. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/61735
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性
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作者单位: Institut de Recherche pour le Développement, UR 227 CoRéUs, LABEX CORAIL, BP A5, Nouméa, New Caledonia; IRD (Institut de Recherche pour le Développement)-Sorbonne Universités, (UPMC, Université Paris 06)-CNRS-MNHN-IPSL, LOCEAN Laboratory, IRD Nouméa BP A5, Nouméa Cedex, New Caledonia; Sciences de l'Univers au CERFACS, URA-1875, CERFACS-CNRS, 42 avenue Gaspard Coriolis, Toulouse, France; Sorbonne Universités (UPMC, Univ Paris 06)-CNRS-IRD-MNHN, LOCEAN Laboratory, IPSL, Paris, France
Recommended Citation:
Andréfouët S.,Dutheil C.,Menkes C.E.,et al. Mass mortality events in atoll lagoons: Environmental control and increased future vulnerability[J]. Global Change Biology,2015-01-01,21(1)