globalchange  > 影响、适应和脆弱性
DOI: 10.1002/jgrd.50316
Long-term ozone changes and associated climate impacts in CMIP5 simulations
Author: Eyring V.; Arblaster J.M.; Cionni I.; Sedláček J.; Perlwitz J.; Young P.J.; Bekki S.; Bergmann D.; Cameron-Smith P.; Collins W.J.; Faluvegi G.; Gottschaldt K.-D.; Horowitz L.W.; Kinnison D.E.; Lamarque J.-F.; Marsh D.R.; Saint-Martin D.; Shindell D.T.; Sudo K.; Szopa S.; Watanabe S.
Source Publication: Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres
ISSN: 21698996
Publishing Year: 2013
Volume: 118, Issue:10
pages begin: 5029
pages end: 5060
Language: 英语
Keyword: chemistry-climate coupling ; CMIP5 ; stratospheric ozone ; stratospheric temperature trends ; tropospheric ozone ; zonal wind changes
Scopus Keyword: Climate change ; Greenhouse gases ; Ozone ; Ozone layer ; Recovery ; CMIP5 ; Stratospheric ozone ; Stratospheric temperature ; Tropospheric ozone ; Zonal wind ; Climate models ; atmospheric chemistry ; climate effect ; greenhouse gas ; halogen ; long-term change ; methane ; ozone ; ozone depletion ; simulation ; Southern Hemisphere ; troposphere ; zonal wind ; Antarctica ; Arctic
English Abstract: Ozone changes and associated climate impacts in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) simulations are analyzed over the historical (1960-2005) and future (2006-2100) period under four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP). In contrast to CMIP3, where half of the models prescribed constant stratospheric ozone, CMIP5 models all consider past ozone depletion and future ozone recovery. Multimodel mean climatologies and long-term changes in total and tropospheric column ozone calculated from CMIP5 models with either interactive or prescribed ozone are in reasonable agreement with observations. However, some large deviations from observations exist for individual models with interactive chemistry, and these models are excluded in the projections. Stratospheric ozone projections forced with a single halogen, but four greenhouse gas (GHG) scenarios show largest differences in the northern midlatitudes and in the Arctic in spring (~20 and 40 Dobson units (DU) by 2100, respectively). By 2050, these differences are much smaller and negligible over Antarctica in austral spring. Differences in future tropospheric column ozone are mainly caused by differences in methane concentrations and stratospheric input, leading to ~10 DU increases compared to 2000 in RCP 8.5. Large variations in stratospheric ozone particularly in CMIP5 models with interactive chemistry drive correspondingly large variations in lower stratospheric temperature trends. The results also illustrate that future Southern Hemisphere summertime circulation changes are controlled by both the ozone recovery rate and the rate of GHG increases, emphasizing the importance of simulating and taking into account ozone forcings when examining future climate projections. Key PointsCMIP5 models all consider past ozone depletion and future ozone recoveryMultimodel ozone agrees well with observations but individual models deviateFuture climate is sensitive to rates of both ozone recovery and GHG increases ©2013. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.
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被引频次[WOS]:164   [查看WOS记录]     [查看WOS中相关记录]
Document Type: 期刊论文
Appears in Collections:影响、适应和脆弱性

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Affiliation: Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt (DLR), Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre, Oberpfaffenhofen, Germany; Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research, Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne VIC, Australia; National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), Boulder CO, United States; Agenzia Nazionale per le Nuove Tecnologie, l'Energia e Lo Sviluppo Economico Sostenibile (ENEA), Bologna, Italy; Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Switzerland; NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory, Boulder CO, United States; Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado, Boulder CO, United States; Now at Lancaster Environment Centre, Lancaster University, Lancaster, United Kingdom; Institut Pierre Simon Laplace (IPSL), Paris, France; Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore CA, United States; Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, United Kingdom; Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom; NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, NY, United States; NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton NJ, United States; Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques (CNRM-GAME), Toulouse, France; Graduate School of Environmental Studies, Nagoya University, Nagoya, Japan; Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Yokohama, Japan

Recommended Citation:
Eyring V.,Arblaster J.M.,Cionni I.,et al. Long-term ozone changes and associated climate impacts in CMIP5 simulations[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres,2013-01-01,118(10)
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