DOI: 10.1002/jgrd.50304
论文题名: Obtaining diverse behaviors in a climate model without the use of flux adjustments
作者: Yamazaki K. ; Rowlands D.J. ; Aina T. ; Blaker A.T. ; Bowery A. ; Massey N. ; Miller J. ; Rye C. ; Tett S.F.B. ; Williamson D. ; Yamazaki Y.H. ; Allen M.R.
刊名: Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres
ISSN: 21698996
出版年: 2013
卷: 118, 期: 7 起始页码: 2781
结束页码: 2793
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric temperature
; Atmospheric turbulence
; C (programming language)
; Fixed platforms
; Atlantic meridional overturning circulations
; Coupled Model Intercomparison Project
; Distributed computing platform
; General circulation model
; Global mean surface temperature
; Multi-model ensemble
; Ocean-atmosphere models
; Space filling designs
; Climate models
; climate modeling
; energy balance
; flux measurement
; general circulation model
; meridional circulation
; overturn
; regional climate
; surface temperature
; top of atmosphere
英文摘要: A number of studies have set out to obtain a range of atmosphere and ocean model behavior by perturbing parameters in a single climate model (perturbed physics ensemble: PPE). Early studies used shallow layer slab ocean or flux-adjusted coupled oceanatmosphere models to obtain a broad range of behavior as characterized by climate sensitivity. A recent study reports a relatively narrow range of sensitivities (2.2-3.2°C) in a PPE of 35 coupled models without flux adjustment, raising the question whether previous broad ranges were an artifact of the use of models that were not in top-of-atmosphere (TOA) energy balance. Moreover, no PPE experiment has reported a large spread of behavior of the ocean compared to that exhibited in a multi-model ensemble (MME) such as Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3). In this work, we randomly perturb model parameters of a coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model using a space-filling design containing 10,000 combinations. The ensemble is run over the distributed computing platform of climateprediction.net under fixed pre-industrial forcing without flux adjustment. We resample a second, 20,000-member, ensemble with perturbations conditioned on the TOA fluxes from the first ensemble to not drift significantly from a realistic base state while targeting a range of behavior. Models within the targeted ensemble show realistic regional control climates when compared to the CMIP3 ensemble, although there is a bias in global mean surface temperature. The range of predicted equilibrium climate sensitivities of the targeted ensemble is substantially smaller than that obtained with flux adjustment, but larger than the range in the CMIP3 ensemble or in the 35-model un-flux-adjusted PPE in a recent study mentioned above. The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation in the targeted ensemble exhibits a spread in strength as wide as that found in the CMIP3 ensemble. We conclude that flux adjustment is not a prerequisite for obtaining a broad spread of behavior in a perturbed physics ensemble. © 2013. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/63842
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: Atmospheric, Oceanic and Planetary Physics, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom; National Oceanography Centre, Southampton, United Kingdom; School of Geosciences, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, United Kingdom; Department of Mathematical Sciences, Durham University, Durham, United Kingdom; School of Geography, Politics and Sociology, Newcastle University, Newcastle, United Kingdom
Recommended Citation:
Yamazaki K.,Rowlands D.J.,Aina T.,et al. Obtaining diverse behaviors in a climate model without the use of flux adjustments[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres,2013-01-01,118(7)