| DOI: | 10.1002/grl.50317
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| 论文题名: | Multi-system seasonal predictions of Arctic sea ice |
| 作者: | Merryfield W.J.; Lee W.-S.; Wang W.; Chen M.; Kumar A.
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| 刊名: | Geophysical Research Letters
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| ISSN: | 0094-9133
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| EISSN: | 1944-8864
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| 出版年: | 2013
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| 卷: | 40, 期:8 | | 起始页码: | 1551
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| 结束页码: | 1556
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| 语种: | 英语
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| 英文关键词: | multi-model ensembles
; sea ice prediction
; seasonal prediction
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| Scopus关键词: | Combined forecasts
; Inter-annual predictions
; Multi-model combination
; Multi-model ensemble
; Prediction systems
; Prognostic variables
; Seasonal forecasting
; Seasonal prediction
; Climatology
; Sea ice
; Forecasting
; climate modeling
; climate prediction
; persistence
; sea ice
; seasonal variation
; weather forecasting
; Arctic Ocean
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| 英文摘要: | The utility of multi-system, coupled model-based seasonal predictions of Arctic sea ice area and extent is investigated for combined predictions from the Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2) and Canadian Seasonal to Interannual Prediction System (CanSIPS) operational seasonal forecasting systems, which are among the first to have sea ice as a prognostic variable. Forecast skills for predictions of total anomalies and departures from long-term linear trends are examined both for the individual systems and the combined forecasts, and are compared against simple predictions such as damped anomaly persistence. Results indicate that the tendency for climate forecasts based on combined output from multiple prediction systems to outperform any one system, demonstrated previously for global variables such as temperature and precipitation, is realized for predictions of Arctic sea ice as well. Key Points Climate model-based seasonal sea ice prediction is only starting to be explored Multi-model combination is known to improve forecasts e.g. of temperature Multi-model combination is found to improve sea ice predictions as well. ©2013. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. |
| URL: | https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84877973485&doi=10.1002%2fgrl.50317&partnerID=40&md5=012016c50405be4ce6e29c34a68e3b4b
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| Citation statistics: |
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| 资源类型: | 期刊论文
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| 标识符: | http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/6397
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| Appears in Collections: | 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: | Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Environment Canada, PO Box 3065 STN CSC, Victoria, BC V8W 3V6, Canada
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| Recommended Citation: | |
Merryfield W.J.,Lee W.-S.,Wang W.,et al. Multi-system seasonal predictions of Arctic sea ice[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2013-01-01,40(8).
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