DOI: 10.1002/grl.50162
论文题名: Using synthetic tracers as a proxy for summertime PM<inf>2.5</inf> air quality over the Northeastern United States in physical climate models
作者: Fang Y. ; Fiore A.M. ; Lamarque J.-F. ; Horowitz L.W. ; Lin M.
刊名: Geophysical Research Letters
ISSN: 0094-9302
EISSN: 1944-9033
出版年: 2013
卷: 40, 期: 4 起始页码: 755
结束页码: 760
语种: 英语
英文关键词: climate change
; climate model
; PM2.5
; synthetic tracers
Scopus关键词: Aerosols
; Air quality
; Climate models
; Linear regression
; Particles (particulate matter)
; Time series
; Uncertainty analysis
; Chemistry-climate models
; Cumulative density functions
; Fine particulate matter
; Geophysical fluid dynamics laboratories
; Global climate model
; Linear regression models
; PM2.5
; Simple linear regression
; Climate change
; aerosol
; air quality
; atmospheric pollution
; climate conditions
; climate modeling
; correlation
; fluid dynamics
; geophysical survey
; particulate matter
; regression analysis
; summer
; time series
; trace element
; uncertainty analysis
; wet deposition
; United States
英文摘要: Fine particulate matter (PM2.5 ) is a criteria pollutant. Its sensitivity to meteorology implies its distribution will likely change with climate shifts. Limited availability of global climate models with full chemistry complicates efforts to assess rigorously the uncertainties in the PM2.5 response to a warming climate. We evaluate the potential for PM2.5 distributions in a chemistry-climate model under current-day and warmer climate conditions over the Northeastern United States to be represented by a Synthetic Aerosol tracer (SAt). The SAt implemented into the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory chemistry-climate model (AM3) follows the protocol of a recent multimodel community effort (HTAP), with CO emissions, 25-day chemical lifetime, and wet deposition rate of sulfate. Over the Northeastern United States, the summer daily time series of SAt correlates strongly with that of PM2.5 , with similar cumulative density functions under both present and future climate conditions. With a linear regression model derived from PM2.5 and SAt in the current-day simulation, we reconstruct both the current-day and future PM2.5 daily time series from the simulated SAt. This reconstruction captures the summer mean PM2.5 , the incidence of days above the 24-h mean PM 2.5 NAAQS, and PM2.5 responses to climate change. This reconstruction also works over other polluted Northern Hemispheric regions and in spring. Our proof-of-concept study demonstrates that simple tracers can be developed to mimic PM2.5 , including its response to climate change, as an easy-to-implement and low-cost addition to physical climate models that should help air quality managers to reap the benefits of climate models that have no chemistry. Key Points Aerosol tracers strongly correlate with PM2.5 over Northern polluted regions A simple linear regression model can be used to reconstruct PM2.5 Tracers can be developed to mimic PM2.5 in physical climate models ©2013. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. URL: https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84878209602&doi=10.1002%2fgrl.50162&partnerID=40&md5=6a4813215896e2313b1ad99de8c46b62
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/6566
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: Princeton University, Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, Princeton, NJ, United States
Recommended Citation:
Fang Y.,Fiore A.M.,Lamarque J.-F.,et al. Using synthetic tracers as a proxy for summertime PM<inf>2.5</inf> air quality over the Northeastern United States in physical climate models[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2013-01-01,40(4).