DOI: 10.1016/j.foreco.2014.04.033
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84901234382
论文题名: Climate, trees, pests, and weeds: Change, uncertainty, and biotic stressors in eastern U.S. national park forests
作者: Fisichelli N.A. ; Abella S.R. ; Peters M. ; Krist F.J.
刊名: Forest Ecology and Management
ISSN: 0378-1127
出版年: 2014
卷: 327 起始页码: 31
结束页码: 39
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Climate change adaptation
; Eastern United States
; Forest health
; Nonnative species
; Vulnerability Assessment
Scopus关键词: Climate change
; Climate models
; Ecosystems
; Plants (botany)
; Climate change adaptation
; Eastern United States
; Forest health
; Non-native species
; Vulnerability assessments
; Forestry
; adaptation
; climate effect
; forest management
; habitat quality
; national park
; pest species
; population decline
; species diversity
; climate change
; correlation
; forest health
; land management
; monitoring system
; uncertainty analysis
; vulnerability
; Eastern USA
; Ecosystems
; Forestry
; Seasonal Variation
; United States
英文摘要: The US National Park Service (NPS) manages over 8900km2 of forest area in the eastern United States where climate change and nonnative species are altering forest structure, composition, and processes. Understanding potential forest change in response to climate, differences in habitat projections among models (uncertainty), and nonnative biotic stressors (tree pests and diseases and invasive plants) are vital for forward-looking land management. In this research, we examined potential changes in tree habitat suitability using two climate scenarios ('least change' and 'major change') to evaluate uncertainty in the magnitude of potential forest change. We further used nonnative tree pest and plant data to examine strengths and spatial patterns of these stressors and their correlations with projected changes in tree habitat. Analyses included 121national parks, 134tree species (from the US Forest Service Climate Change Atlas), 81 nonnative tree pests (from the US Forest Service Alien Forest Pest Explorer Database), and nonnative vascular plant presence data from each park. Lastly, for individual tree species in individual parks, we categorized potential habitat suitability change (from late 20th century baseline to 2100) into three change classes: large decrease (<50%), minor change (50-200%), and large increase (>200%). Results show that the potential magnitude of forest change (percentage of modeled tree species in the large decrease and large increase classes, combined) varies from 22% to 77% at individual parks. Uncertainty (the percentage of tree species in differing change classes across climate scenarios) varies from 18% to 84% at parks. Nonnative plant species comprise from <10% to about 50% of the flora at parks. The number of nonnative tree pest species ranges from 15 to 70 among parks. Potential forest change, uncertainty, and nonnative pests and plants have significant positive correlations, illustrating the broad scope of potential compounding effects and future changes in many eastern forests. The combination of rapid climate change and nonnative stressors may accelerate decline of some tree species and inhibit other species from occupying climatically suitable habitat. Stewarding forests for continuous change is a challenge for park managers. Understanding and anticipating projected rates and directions of forest change and nonnative biotic stressors should facilitate monitoring and management efforts on park lands and across the broader landscape. © 2014. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/65872
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性
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作者单位: US National Park Service, Natural Resource Stewardship and Science, Fort Collins, CO, United States; US Forest Service, Northern Research Station, Delaware, OH, United States; US Forest Service, Forest Health Technology Enterprise Team, Fort Collins, CO, United States; Natural Resource Conservation LLC, Boulder City, NV, United States
Recommended Citation:
Fisichelli N.A.,Abella S.R.,Peters M.,et al. Climate, trees, pests, and weeds: Change, uncertainty, and biotic stressors in eastern U.S. national park forests[J]. Forest Ecology and Management,2014-01-01,327