DOI: 10.1002/2014GL061146
论文题名: Do seasonal-to-decadal climate predictions underestimate the predictability of the real world?
作者: Eade R. ; Smith D. ; Scaife A. ; Wallace E. ; Dunstone N. ; Hermanson L. ; Robinson N.
刊名: Geophysical Research Letters
ISSN: 0094-9864
EISSN: 1944-9595
出版年: 2014
卷: 41, 期: 15 起始页码: 5620
结束页码: 5628
语种: 英语
英文关键词: decadal prediction
; ensemble
; predictability
; reliability
; seasonal prediction
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric pressure
; Climate models
; Climatology
; Experiments
; Reliability
; Forecasting
; Decadal predictions
; ensemble
; North Atlantic oscillations
; Post-processing techniques
; predictability
; Probabilistic forecasts
; Seasonal prediction
; Temperature and pressures
; Climate prediction
; Ensemble techniques
; Probabilistic measures
; Forecasting
; Climate models
; climate prediction
; estimation method
; North Atlantic Oscillation
; probability
; spatiotemporal analysis
; weather forecasting
英文摘要: Seasonal-to-decadal predictions are inevitably uncertain, depending on the size of the predictable signal relative to unpredictable chaos. Uncertainties can be accounted for using ensemble techniques, permitting quantitative probabilistic forecasts. In a perfect system, each ensemble member would represent a potential realization of the true evolution of the climate system, and the predictable components in models and reality would be equal. However, we show that the predictable component is sometimes lower in models than observations, especially for seasonal forecasts of the North Atlantic Oscillation and multiyear forecasts of North Atlantic temperature and pressure. In these cases the forecasts are underconfident, with each ensemble member containing too much noise. Consequently, most deterministic and probabilistic measures underestimate potential skill and idealized model experiments underestimate predictability. However, skilful and reliable predictions may be achieved using a large ensemble to reduce noise and adjusting the forecast variance through a postprocessing technique proposed here. Key Points Model members can be too noisy and not potential realizations of the real world Predictability may be underestimated by idealized experiments and skill measures Can achieve skilful and reliable forecasts using large ensembles to reduce noise © 2014. The Authors.
URL: https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84906871926&doi=10.1002%2f2014GL061146&partnerID=40&md5=3050c23971f14f2ae23ddbd91c78bbfa
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/7128
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, United Kingdom
Recommended Citation:
Eade R.,Smith D.,Scaife A.,et al. Do seasonal-to-decadal climate predictions underestimate the predictability of the real world?[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2014-01-01,41(15).