DOI: 10.1002/2014GL060420
论文题名: Forecast cooling of the Atlantic subpolar gyre and associated impacts
作者: Hermanson L. ; Eade R. ; Robinson N.H. ; Dunstone N.J. ; Andrews M.B. ; Knight J.R. ; Scaife A.A. ; Smith D.M.
刊名: Geophysical Research Letters
ISSN: 0094-9917
EISSN: 1944-9648
出版年: 2014
卷: 41, 期: 14 起始页码: 5167
结束页码: 5174
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Atlantic
; decadal prediction
; impacts
; subpolar gyre
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric temperature
; Atlantic
; Atlantic meridional overturning circulations
; Decadal predictions
; Decadal variability
; impacts
; Multi-model ensemble
; Subpolar gyres
; Surface temperatures
; Forecasting
; climate effect
; cooling
; decadal variation
; gyre
; heat flux
; weather forecasting
; Atlantic Ocean
; Atlantic Ocean (North)
英文摘要: Decadal variability in the North Atlantic and its subpolar gyre (SPG) has been shown to be predictable in climate models initialized with the concurrent ocean state. Numerous impacts over ocean and land have also been identified. Here we use three versions of the Met Office Decadal Prediction System to provide a multimodel ensemble forecast of the SPG and related impacts. The recent cooling trend in the SPG is predicted to continue in the next 5 years due to a decrease in the SPG heat convergence related to a slowdown of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. We present evidence that the ensemble forecast is able to skilfully predict these quantities over recent decades. We also investigate the ability of the forecast to predict impacts on surface temperature, pressure, precipitation, and Atlantic tropical storms and compare the forecast to recent boreal summer climate. © 2014. The Authors. URL: https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84904521005&doi=10.1002%2f2014GL060420&partnerID=40&md5=dfb05792d7c249563190ae0c610aa241
Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/7181
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应
There are no files associated with this item.
作者单位: Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, United Kingdom
Recommended Citation:
Hermanson L.,Eade R.,Robinson N.H.,et al. Forecast cooling of the Atlantic subpolar gyre and associated impacts[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2014-01-01,41(14).