DOI: 10.5194/tc-12-675-2018
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85042707161
论文题名: Mechanisms influencing seasonal to inter-annual prediction skill of sea ice extent in the Arctic Ocean in MIROC
作者: Ono J ; , Tatebe H ; , Komuro Y ; , Nodzu M ; I ; , Ishii M
刊名: Cryosphere
ISSN: 19940416
出版年: 2018
卷: 12, 期: 2 起始页码: 675
结束页码: 683
语种: 英语
英文关键词: annual variation
; concentration (composition)
; heat transfer
; hindcasting
; interdisciplinary approach
; sea ice
; seasonal variation
; subsurface flow
; water flow
; Arctic Ocean
; Barents Sea
; Chukchi Sea
; East Siberian Sea
英文摘要: To assess the skill of seasonal to inter-annual predictions of the detrended sea ice extent in the Arctic Ocean (SIEAO) and to clarify the underlying physical processes, we conducted ensemble hindcasts, started on 1 January, 1 April, 1 July and 1 October for each year from 1980 to 2011, for lead times up to three years, using the Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate (MIROC) version 5 initialised with the observed atmosphere and ocean anomalies and sea ice concentration. Significant skill is found for the winter months: the December SIEAO can be predicted up to 11 months ahead (anomaly correlation coefficient is 0.42). This skill might be attributed to the subsurface ocean heat content originating in the North Atlantic. A plausible mechanism is as follows: the subsurface water flows into the Barents Sea from spring to fall and emerges at the surface in winter by vertical mixing, and eventually affects the sea ice variability there. Meanwhile, the September SIEAO predictions are skillful for lead times of up to two months, due to the persistence of sea ice in the Beaufort, Chukchi, and East Siberian seas initialised in July, as suggested by previous studies. © 2018 Author(s). Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/75412
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Yokohama, Japan; Tokyo Metropolitan University, Hachioji, Japan; Meteorological Research Institute, Japan Meteorological Agency, Tsukuba, Japan
Recommended Citation:
Ono J,, Tatebe H,, Komuro Y,et al. Mechanisms influencing seasonal to inter-annual prediction skill of sea ice extent in the Arctic Ocean in MIROC[J]. Cryosphere,2018-01-01,12(2)