DOI: 10.1002/2013GL058376
论文题名: Delayed onset of runaway and moist greenhouse climates for Earth
作者: Wolf E.T. ; Toon O.B.
刊名: Geophysical Research Letters
ISSN: 0094-10519
EISSN: 1944-10250
出版年: 2014
卷: 41, 期: 1 起始页码: 167
结束页码: 172
语种: 英语
英文关键词: habitability
; hot climates
Scopus关键词: Earth's climate
; Earth's surface
; Global mean surface temperature
; Greenhouse climates
; habitability
; Hot climate
; Saturation vapor pressure
; Thermal runaways
; Atmospheric temperature
; Carbon dioxide
; Climate models
; Greenhouses
; Methane
; Solar radiation
; carbon dioxide
; carbon fixation
; catastrophic event
; climate conditions
; climate modeling
; Earth
; simulation
; surface temperature
; vapor pressure
; water level
; weather forecasting
英文摘要: As the Sun slowly grows brighter over its main sequence lifetime, habitability on Earth's surface will eventually become threatened probably leading to moist and then runaway greenhouse climates. One-dimensional climate models predict that a catastrophic thermal runaway will be triggered by a 6% increase in the solar constant above its present level. However, here simulations using a three-dimensional climate model with fixed carbon dioxide and methane indicate that surface habitability may be maintained at significantly larger solar constants. A 15.5% increase in the solar constant yields global mean surface temperatures of 312.9 K, well short of moist and runaway greenhouse states. Numerical limitations prevent simulation of climates much warmer than this. Nonetheless, our results imply that Earth's climate may remain safe against both water loss and thermal runaway limits for at least another 1.5 billion years and probably for much longer. Key Points Earth remains habitable with at minimum 15.5% increase in the solar constant Subsaturation, clouds, and dynamics responsible for extending habitability Clouds may dissipate in hot climates due to large saturation vapor pressures ©2013. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. URL: https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84896691850&doi=10.1002%2f2013GL058376&partnerID=40&md5=4ae07fbf0451a9581e29d4e12e1b9dbd
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/7783
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Laboratory for Atmospheric and Space Physics, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO, United States
Recommended Citation:
Wolf E.T.,Toon O.B.. Delayed onset of runaway and moist greenhouse climates for Earth[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2014-01-01,41(1).