DOI: 10.5194/hess-22-709-2018
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85041419066
论文题名: Climate-driven disturbances in the San Juan River sub-basin of the Colorado River
作者: Bennett K ; E ; , Bohn T ; J ; , Solander K ; , McDowell N ; G ; , Xu C ; , Vivoni E ; , Middleton R ; S
刊名: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
ISSN: 10275606
出版年: 2018
卷: 22, 期: 1 起始页码: 709
结束页码: 725
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Climate models
; Evapotranspiration
; Forestry
; Risk perception
; Rivers
; Stream flow
; Water management
; Water resources
; Watersheds
; Colorado River Basin
; Disturbed systems
; Explicit representation
; Forest disturbances
; Hydrologic modeling
; Regional water resources
; Streamflow patterns
; Waterresource management
; Climate change
; calibration
; climate change
; disturbance
; evapotranspiration
; headwater
; hydrological modeling
; land cover
; low flow
; semiarid region
; streamflow
; water budget
; water resource
; Colorado Basin [North America]
; San Juan River [United States]
; United States
英文摘要: Accelerated climate change and associated forest disturbances in the southwestern USA are anticipated to have substantial impacts on regional water resources. Few studies have quantified the impact of both climate change and land cover disturbances on water balances on the basin scale, and none on the regional scale. In this work, we evaluate the impacts of forest disturbances and climate change on a headwater basin to the Colorado River, the San Juan River watershed, using a robustly calibrated (Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency 0.76) hydrologic model run with updated formulations that improve estimates of evapotranspiration for semi-arid regions. Our results show that future disturbances will have a substantial impact on streamflow with implications for water resource management. Our findings are in contradiction with conventional thinking that forest disturbances reduce evapotranspiration and increase streamflow. In this study, annual average regional streamflow under the coupled climate-disturbance scenarios is at least 6-11 % lower than those scenarios accounting for climate change alone; for forested zones of the San Juan River basin, streamflow is 15-21 % lower. The monthly signals of altered streamflow point to an emergent streamflow pattern related to changes in forests of the disturbed systems. Exacerbated reductions of mean and low flows under disturbance scenarios indicate a high risk of low water availability for forested headwater systems of the Colorado River basin. These findings also indicate that explicit representation of land cover disturbances is required in modeling efforts that consider the impact of climate change on water resources. © 2018 Author(s). This work is distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/79452
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Earth and Environmental Sciences, Los Alamos National Lab, Los Alamos, NM, United States; Julie Ann Wrigley Global Institute of Sustainability, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ, United States; School of Earth and Space Exploration, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ, United States; School of Sustainable Engineering and the Built Environment, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ, United States; Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA, United States
Recommended Citation:
Bennett K,E,, Bohn T,et al. Climate-driven disturbances in the San Juan River sub-basin of the Colorado River[J]. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences,2018-01-01,22(1)