DOI: 10.1007/s10584-015-1537-5
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84945584529
论文题名: Estimated impacts of emission reductions on wheat and maize crops
作者: Tebaldi C. ; Lobell D.
刊名: Climatic Change
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2018
卷: 146, 期: 2018-03-04 起始页码: 533
结束页码: 545
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Carbon dioxide
; Climate change
; Earth (planet)
; Emission control
; Risk perception
; Climate change mitigation
; Climate variables
; Critical periods
; Earth system model
; Emission reduction
; High temperature
; Initial condition ensembles
; Wheat production
; Climate models
; Triticum aestivum
; Zea mays
英文摘要: We assess the benefits of climate change mitigation for global maize and wheat production over the 21st century by comparing outcomes under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 as simulated by two large initial condition ensembles from NCAR’s Community Earth System Model. We use models of the relation between climate variables, CO2 concentrations, and yields built on observations and then project this relation on the basis of simulated future temperature and precipitation and CO2 trajectories under the two scenarios, for short (2021–2040), medium (2041–2060) and long (2061–2080) time horizons. We focus on projected mean yield impacts, chances of significant slowdowns in yield, and exposure to damaging heat during critical periods of the growing seasons, the last of which is not explicitly considered in yield impacts by most models, including ours. We find that substantial benefits from mitigation would be achieved throughout the 21st century for maize, in terms of reducing (1) the size of average yield impacts, with mean losses for maize under RCP8.5 reduced under RCP4.5 by about 25 %, 40 % and 50 % as the time horizon lengthens over the 21st century; (2) the risk of major slowdowns over a 10 or 20 year period, with maize chances under RCP4.5 being reduced up to ~75 % by the end of the century compared to those estimated under RCP8.5; and (3) exposure to critical or “lethal” heat extremes, with the number of extremely hot days under RCP8.5 roughly triple current levels by end of century, compared to a doubling for RCP4.5. For wheat, we project small or occasionally negative effects of mitigation for projected yields, because of stronger CO2 fertilization effects than in maize, but substantial benefits of mitigation remain in terms of exposure to extremely high temperatures. © 2015, Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/83817
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Climate and Global Dynamics Division, National Center for Atmospheric Research, PO Box 3000, Boulder, CO, United States; Department of Earth System Science and Center on Food Security and the Environment, Stanford University, 473 Via Ortega, Stanford, CA, United States
Recommended Citation:
Tebaldi C.,Lobell D.. Estimated impacts of emission reductions on wheat and maize crops[J]. Climatic Change,2018-01-01,146(2018-03-04)