DOI: 10.1007/s10584-017-2027-8
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85025617623
论文题名: Early action on Paris Agreement allows for more time to change energy systems
作者: van Soest H.L. ; de Boer H.S. ; Roelfsema M. ; den Elzen M.G.J. ; Admiraal A. ; van Vuuren D.P. ; Hof A.F. ; van den Berg M. ; Harmsen M.J.H.M. ; Gernaat D.E.H.J. ; Forsell N.
刊名: Climatic Change
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2017
卷: 144, 期: 2 起始页码: 165
结束页码: 179
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric radiation
; Carbon
; Coal
; Cost reduction
; Emission control
; Fossil fuel power plants
; Greenhouse gases
; Coal-fired power plant
; Emission reduction
; Integrated assessment models
; Low carbon energies
; Mitigation costs
; Radiative forcings
; Rapid transitions
; Reduction rate
; Gas emissions
; climate change
; coal-fired power plant
; emission control
; energy
; global climate
; greenhouse gas
; international agreement
; model
; prediction
; radiative forcing
; scenario analysis
; warming
英文摘要: The IMAGE integrated assessment model was used to develop a set of scenarios to evaluate the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) submitted by Parties under the Paris Agreement. The scenarios project emissions and energy system changes under (i) current policies, (ii) implementation of the NDCs, and (iii) various trajectories to a radiative forcing level of 2.8 W/m2 in 2100, which gives a probability of about two thirds to limit warming to below 2 °C. The scenarios show that a cost-optimal pathway from 2020 onwards towards 2.8 W/m2 leads to a global greenhouse gas emission level of 38 gigatonne CO2 equivalent (GtCO2eq) by 2030, equal to a reduction of 20% compared to the 2010 level. The NDCs are projected to lead to 2030 emission levels of 50 GtCO2eq, which is still an increase compared to the 2010 level. A scenario that achieves the 2.8 W/m2 forcing level in 2100 from the 2030 NDC level requires more rapid transitions after 2030 to meet the forcing target. It shows an annual reduction rate in greenhouse gas emissions of 4.7% between 2030 and 2050, rapidly phasing out unabated coal-fired power plant capacity, more rapid scale-up of low-carbon energy, and higher mitigation costs. A bridge scenario shows that enhancing the ambition level of NDCs before 2030 allows for a smoother energy system transition, with average annual emission reduction rates of 4.5% between 2030 and 2050, and more time to phase out coal capacity. © 2017, The Author(s). Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/83932
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, P.O. Box 30314, The Hague, Netherlands; Copernicus Institute of Sustainable Development, Utrecht University, P.O. Box 80.115, Utrecht, Netherlands; International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Schlossplatz 1, Laxenburg, Austria
Recommended Citation:
van Soest H.L.,de Boer H.S.,Roelfsema M.,et al. Early action on Paris Agreement allows for more time to change energy systems[J]. Climatic Change,2017-01-01,144(2)