DOI: 10.1007/s10584-017-1899-y
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85011278112
论文题名: Effects of climate change on snowpack and fire potential in the western USA
作者: Gergel D.R. ; Nijssen B. ; Abatzoglou J.T. ; Lettenmaier D.P. ; Stumbaugh M.R.
刊名: Climatic Change
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2017
卷: 141, 期: 2 起始页码: 287
结束页码: 299
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Climate change
; Climate models
; Fuels
; Landforms
; Snow
; Soil moisture
; Soils
; Climate scenarios
; Fire potential
; Fuel moisture
; Hydrology modeling
; Mountain ranges
; Mountain snowpack
; Spring snow
; Variable infiltration capacities
; Moisture
; climate change
; fire
; hydrological modeling
; mountain region
; snow cover
; snowpack
; soil moisture
; twenty first century
; Arizona
; United States
; White Mountains [Arizona]
英文摘要: We evaluate the implications of ten twenty-first century climate scenarios for snow, soil moisture, and fuel moisture across the conterminous western USA using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrology model. A decline in mountain snowpack, an advance in the timing of spring melt, and a reduction in snow season are projected for five mountain ranges in the region. For the southernmost range (the White Mountains), spring snow at most elevations will disappear by the end of the twenty-first century. We investigate soil and fuel moisture changes for the five mountain ranges and for six lowland regions. The accelerated depletion of mountain snowpack due to warming leads to reduced summer soil moisture across mountain environments. Similarly, warmer and drier summers lead to decreases of up to 25% in dead fuel moisture across all mountain ranges. Collective declines in spring mountain snowpack, summer soil moisture, and fuel moisture across western mountain ranges will increase fire potential in flammability-limited forested systems where fuels are not limiting. Projected changes in fire potential in predominately fuel-limited systems at lower elevations are more uncertain given the confounding signals between projected changes in soil moisture and fuel moisture. © 2017, Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/84070
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Washington, 201 More Hall, Box 352700, Seattle, WA, United States; Department of Geography, University of Idaho, 875 Perimeter Dr., MS 3021, Moscow, ID, United States; Department of Geography, University of California Los Angeles, 1255 Bunche Hall, Box 951524, Los Angeles, CA, United States
Recommended Citation:
Gergel D.R.,Nijssen B.,Abatzoglou J.T.,et al. Effects of climate change on snowpack and fire potential in the western USA[J]. Climatic Change,2017-01-01,141(2)