DOI: 10.1007/s10584-016-1860-5
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84997161420
论文题名: Using an option pricing approach to evaluate strategic decisions in a rapidly changing climate: Black–Scholes and climate change
作者: Sturm M. ; Goldstein M.A. ; Huntington H. ; Douglas T.A.
刊名: Climatic Change
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2017
卷: 140, 期: 2018-03-04 起始页码: 437
结束页码: 449
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Costs
; Economic and social effects
; Economics
; Ecosystems
; Financial markets
; Business climate
; Business situations
; Changing climate
; Complex decision
; Ecosystem services
; First-order approximations
; Future predictions
; Strategic decisions
; Climate change
; business
; climate change
; climate conditions
; decision making
; ecosystem service
; environmental economics
; pricing policy
; risk assessment
; strategic approach
; trade-environment relations
; warming
; Canada
; Northwest Territories
英文摘要: Nature provides critical ecosystem services on which society and businesses rely, but the effort and cost of utilizing those services can change with the climate. Both climatic trend and variance affect these efforts and costs, creating a complex decision space where uncertain future predictions are the rule. Here, we show how these problems mimic option payoffs and demonstrate a modified version of the Black–Scholes option pricing formula (widely used in finance) to analyze these types of business-climate decisions. We demonstrate the method by (1) examining the viability of building ice roads in the Northwest Territories of Canada, where a strong negative warming trend is underway, and (2) applying it to the problem of the ongoing California drought, estimating expected water costs with and without storage. The method is novel and provides a simple and accessible way to make such assessments to at least a first-order approximation. While our focus here is on business situations where decisions are usually based on money, we suggest that a similar approach could be used beyond the business world in examining risk and attributing that risk to climate variance vs. trend. © 2016, The Author(s). Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/84095
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Geophysical Institute, University of Alaska-Fairbanks, Fairbanks, AK, United States; Babson College, Babson Park, MA, United States; Huntington Consulting, Eagle River, AK, United States; U.S. Army Cold Regions Research and Engineering Lab—Alaska, Ft. Wainwright, AK, United States
Recommended Citation:
Sturm M.,Goldstein M.A.,Huntington H.,et al. Using an option pricing approach to evaluate strategic decisions in a rapidly changing climate: Black–Scholes and climate change[J]. Climatic Change,2017-01-01,140(2018-03-04)