DOI: 10.1007/s10584-015-1509-9
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84959211137
论文题名: Pattern scaling using ClimGen: monthly-resolution future climate scenarios including changes in the variability of precipitation
作者: Osborn T.J. ; Wallace C.J. ; Harris I.C. ; Melvin T.M.
刊名: Climatic Change
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2016
卷: 134, 期: 3 起始页码: 353
结束页码: 369
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Application programs
; Climate models
; Precipitation (meteorology)
; Software testing
; Future climate scenarios
; Gamma distribution
; Global-mean temperature
; Interannual variability
; Precipitation anomalies
; Precipitation extremes
; Software applications
; Teleconnection patterns
; Climate change
英文摘要: Development, testing and example applications of the pattern-scaling approach for generating future climate change projections are reported here, with a focus on a particular software application called “ClimGen”. A number of innovations have been implemented, including using exponential and logistic functions of global-mean temperature to represent changes in local precipitation and cloud cover, and interpolation from climate model grids to a finer grid while taking into account land-sea contrasts in the climate change patterns. Of particular significance is a new approach for incorporating changes in the inter-annual variability of monthly precipitation simulated by climate models. This is achieved by diagnosing simulated changes in the shape of the gamma distribution of monthly precipitation totals, applying the pattern-scaling approach to estimate changes in the shape parameter under a future scenario, and then perturbing sequences of observed precipitation anomalies so that their distribution changes according to the projected change in the shape parameter. The approach cannot represent changes to the structure of climate timeseries (e.g. changed autocorrelation or teleconnection patterns) were they to occur, but is shown here to be more successful at representing changes in low precipitation extremes than previous pattern-scaling methods. © 2015, The Author(s). Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/84395
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Climatic Research Unit, School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich, United Kingdom
Recommended Citation:
Osborn T.J.,Wallace C.J.,Harris I.C.,et al. Pattern scaling using ClimGen: monthly-resolution future climate scenarios including changes in the variability of precipitation[J]. Climatic Change,2016-01-01,134(3)