DOI: 10.1007/s10584-015-1525-9
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84951570285
论文题名: Global and regional climate impacts of future aerosol mitigation in an RCP6.0-like scenario in EC-Earth
作者: Chuwah C. ; van Noije T. ; van Vuuren D.P. ; Le Sager P. ; Hazeleger W.
刊名: Climatic Change
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2016
卷: 134, 期: 2018-01-02 起始页码: 1
结束页码: 14
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Aerosols
; Air pollution
; Air pollution control
; Atmospheric temperature
; Carbon
; Climate change
; Earth (planet)
; Pollution
; Pollution control
; Pollution induced corrosion
; Surface properties
; Aerosol concentration
; Aerosol indirect effect
; Global climate model
; Integrated assessment models
; Northern Hemispheres
; Surface solar radiation
; Surface temperatures
; Temperature increase
; Climate models
; aerosol composition
; climate change
; climate effect
; climate modeling
; global climate
; mitigation
; parameterization
; regional climate
; surface temperature
; India
; North America
英文摘要: Future changes in aerosol concentrations will influence the climate system over the coming decades. In this study we evaluate the equilibrium climate response to aerosol reductions in different parts of the world in 2050, using the global climate model EC-Earth. The aerosol concentrations are based on a set of scenarios similar to RCP6.0, developed using the IMAGE integrated assessment model and exploring stringent and weaker air pollution control. Reductions in aerosol concentrations lead to an increase in downward surface solar radiation under all-sky conditions in various parts of the world, especially in Asia where the local brightening may reach about 10 Wm−2. The associated increase in surface temperature may be as high as 0.5 °C. This signal is dominated by the reduced cooling effect of sulphate which in some areas is partially compensated by the decreased warming effect of black carbon. According to our simulations, the mitigation of BC may lead to decreases in mean summer surface temperature of up to 1 °C in central parts of North America and up to 0.3 °C in northern India. Aerosol reductions could significantly affect the climate at high latitudes especially in the winter, where temperature increases of up to 1 °C are simulated. In the Northern Hemisphere, this strong surface temperature response might be related to changes in circulation patterns and precipitation at low latitudes, which can give rise to a wave train and induce changes in weather patterns at high latitudes. Our model does not include a parameterization of aerosol indirect effects so that responses could be stronger in reality. We conclude that different, but plausible, air pollution control policies can have substantial local climate effects and induce remote responses through dynamic teleconnections. © 2015, Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/84417
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute, P.O. Box 201, De Bilt, Netherlands; Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL), Bilthoven, Netherlands; Wageningen University, Wageningen, Netherlands; Copernicus Institute of Sustainable Development, Utrecht University, Utrecht, Netherlands; Netherlands eScience Center, Amsterdam, Netherlands
Recommended Citation:
Chuwah C.,van Noije T.,van Vuuren D.P.,et al. Global and regional climate impacts of future aerosol mitigation in an RCP6.0-like scenario in EC-Earth[J]. Climatic Change,2016-01-01,134(2018-01-02)