globalchange  > 气候减缓与适应
DOI: 10.1007/s10584-014-1313-y
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84921897080
论文题名:
Direct and indirect impacts of climate and socio-economic change in Europe: a sensitivity analysis for key land- and water-based sectors
作者: Kebede A.S.; Dunford R.; Mokrech M.; Audsley E.; Harrison P.A.; Holman I.P.; Nicholls R.J.; Rickebusch S.; Rounsevell M.D.A.; Sabaté S.; Sallaba F.; Sanchez A.; Savin C.; Trnka M.; Wimmer F.
刊名: Climatic Change
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2015
卷: 128, 期:2018-03-04
起始页码: 261
结束页码: 277
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Biodiversity ; Climate change ; Decision making ; Economics ; Floods ; Forestry ; Land use ; Sensitivity analysis ; Direct and indirect impacts ; Indirect implication ; Integrated assessment models ; Integrated assessment platforms ; Potential synergies ; Socio-economic change ; Systematic analysis ; Unintended consequences ; Economic and social effects ; biodiversity ; climate change ; flooding ; future prospect ; integrated approach ; land use change ; performance assessment ; sensitivity analysis ; socioeconomic impact ; trade-off ; Europe ; Irrigation ; Land Use ; Seasonal Variation ; Sensitivity
英文摘要: Integrated cross-sectoral impact assessments facilitate a comprehensive understanding of interdependencies and potential synergies, conflicts, and trade-offs between sectors under changing conditions. This paper presents a sensitivity analysis of a European integrated assessment model, the CLIMSAVE integrated assessment platform (IAP). The IAP incorporates important cross-sectoral linkages between six key European land- and water-based sectors: agriculture, biodiversity, flooding, forests, urban, and water. Using the IAP, we investigate the direct and indirect implications of a wide range of climatic and socio-economic drivers to identify: (1) those sectors and regions most sensitive to future changes, (2) the mechanisms and directions of sensitivity (direct/indirect and positive/negative), (3) the form and magnitudes of sensitivity (linear/non-linear and strong/weak/insignificant), and (4) the relative importance of the key drivers across sectors and regions. The results are complex. Most sectors are either directly or indirectly sensitive to a large number of drivers (more than 18 out of 24 drivers considered). Over twelve of these drivers have indirect impacts on biodiversity, forests, land use diversity, and water, while only four drivers have indirect effects on flooding. In contrast, for the urban sector all the drivers are direct. Moreover, most of the driver–indicator relationships are non-linear, and hence there is the potential for ‘surprises’. This highlights the importance of considering cross-sectoral interactions in future impact assessments. Such systematic analysis provides improved information for decision-makers to formulate appropriate adaptation policies to maximise benefits and minimise unintended consequences. © 2015, Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht.
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/84688
Appears in Collections:气候减缓与适应
气候变化事实与影响

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作者单位: Faculty of Engineering and the Environment, Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Southampton, Highfield, Southampton, United Kingdom; Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford, South Parks Road, Oxford, United Kingdom; School of Science and Computer Engineering, University of Houston-Clear Lake, 2700 Bay Area Blvd., Box 540, Houston, United States; Cranfield Water Sciences Institute, Cranfield University, Cranfield, Bedford, United Kingdom; Environmental Systems Analysis Group, Wageningen University, P.O. Box 47, Wageningen, Netherlands; School of GeoSciences, University of Edinburgh, Drummond Street, Edinburgh, United Kingdom; Centre for Ecological Research and Forestry Applications (CREAF), Universitat autonoma de Barcelona, Edifici C, Bellaterra, Spain; Ecology Department, University of Barcelona, Diagonal 643, Barcelona, Spain; Department of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science, Lund University, Sölvegatan 12, Lund, Sweden; TIAMASG Foundation, Sfintii Voievozi 6, Bucharest, Romania; Institute of Agrosystems and Bioclimatology, Mendel University in Brno, Zemědělská 1, Brno, Czech Republic; Global Change Research Centre AS CR v.v.i, Bělidla 986/4a, Brno, Czech Republic; Center for Environmental Systems Research, University of Kassel, Kassel, Germany

Recommended Citation:
Kebede A.S.,Dunford R.,Mokrech M.,et al. Direct and indirect impacts of climate and socio-economic change in Europe: a sensitivity analysis for key land- and water-based sectors[J]. Climatic Change,2015-01-01,128(2018-03-04)
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