globalchange  > 科学计划与规划
DOI: 10.1002/2015GL064002
论文题名:
Toward "optimal" integration of terrestrial biosphere models
作者: Schwalm C.R.; Huntzinger D.N.; Fisher J.B.; Michalak A.M.; Bowman K.; Ciais P.; Cook R.; El-Masri B.; Hayes D.; Huang M.; Ito A.; Jain A.; King A.W.; Lei H.; Liu J.; Lu C.; Mao J.; Peng S.; Poulter B.; Ricciuto D.; Schaefer K.; Shi X.; Tao B.; Tian H.; Wang W.; Wei Y.; Yang J.; Zeng N.
刊名: Geophysical Research Letters
ISSN: 0094-9153
EISSN: 1944-8884
出版年: 2015
卷: 42, 期:11
起始页码: 4418
结束页码: 4428
语种: 英语
英文关键词: carbon cycle ; model integration ; modeling
Scopus关键词: Biospherics ; Carbon ; Ecosystems ; Models ; Carbon cycles ; Initial conditions ; Model integration ; Multi-model ensemble ; Net ecosystem productivities ; Predictability limit ; Terrestrial biosphere ; Terrestrial models ; Integration
英文摘要: Multimodel ensembles (MME) are commonplace in Earth system modeling. Here we perform MME integration using a 10-member ensemble of terrestrial biosphere models (TBMs) from the Multiscale synthesis and Terrestrial Model Intercomparison Project (MsTMIP). We contrast optimal (skill based for present-day carbon cycling) versus naïve ("one model-one vote") integration. MsTMIP optimal and naïve mean land sink strength estimates (-1.16 versus -1.15 Pg C per annum respectively) are statistically indistinguishable. This holds also for grid cell values and extends to gross uptake, biomass, and net ecosystem productivity. TBM skill is similarly indistinguishable. The added complexity of skill-based integration does not materially change MME values. This suggests that carbon metabolism has predictability limits and/or that all models and references are misspecified. Resolving this issue requires addressing specific uncertainty types (initial conditions, structure, and references) and a change in model development paradigms currently dominant in the TBM community. © 2015. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.
URL: https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84934439686&doi=10.1002%2f2015GL064002&partnerID=40&md5=1354b494f49e55816597368b11a5f625
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/8769
Appears in Collections:科学计划与规划
气候变化与战略

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作者单位: Center for Ecosystem Science and Society, Northern Arizona University, Flagstaff, AZ, United States

Recommended Citation:
Schwalm C.R.,Huntzinger D.N.,Fisher J.B.,et al. Toward "optimal" integration of terrestrial biosphere models[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2015-01-01,42(11).
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