globalchange  > 过去全球变化的重建
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-016-3224-2
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84974824055
论文题名:
West African monsoon decadal variability and surface-related forcings: second West African Monsoon Modeling and Evaluation Project Experiment (WAMME II)
作者: Xue Y.; De Sales F.; Lau W.K.-M.; Boone A.; Kim K.-M.; Mechoso C.R.; Wang G.; Kucharski F.; Schiro K.; Hosaka M.; Li S.; Druyan L.M.; Sanda I.S.; Thiaw W.; Zeng N.; Comer R.E.; Lim Y.-K.; Mahanama S.; Song G.; Gu Y.; Hagos S.M.; Chin M.; Schubert S.; Dirmeyer P.; Ruby Leung L.; Kalnay E.; Kitoh A.; Lu C.-H.; Mahowald N.M.; Zhang Z.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2016
卷: 47, 期:11
起始页码: 3517
结束页码: 3545
语种: 英语
英文关键词: GCM ; Sahel drought, SST and land forcings ; Sahel seasonal and decadal climate variability
英文摘要: The second West African Monsoon Modeling and Evaluation Project Experiment (WAMME II) is designed to improve understanding of the possible roles and feedbacks of sea surface temperature (SST), land use land cover change (LULCC), and aerosols forcings in the Sahel climate system at seasonal to decadal scales. The project’s strategy is to apply prescribed observationally based anomaly forcing, i.e., “idealized but realistic” forcing, in simulations by climate models. The goal is to assess these forcings’ effects in producing/amplifying seasonal and decadal climate variability in the Sahel between the 1950s and the 1980s, which is selected to characterize the great drought period of the last century. This is the first multi-model experiment specifically designed to simultaneously evaluate such relative contributions. The WAMME II models have consistently demonstrated that SST forcing is a major contributor to the twentieth century Sahel drought. Under the influence of the maximum possible SST forcing, the ensemble mean of WAMME II models can produce up to 60 % of the precipitation difference during the period. The present paper also addresses the role of SSTs in triggering and maintaining the Sahel drought. In this regard, the consensus of WAMME II models is that both Indian and Pacific Ocean SSTs greatly contributed to the drought, with the former producing an anomalous displacement of the Intertropical Convergence Zone before the WAM onset, and the latter mainly contributes to the summer WAM drought. The WAMME II models also show that the impact of LULCC forcing on the Sahel climate system is weaker than that of SST forcing, but still of first order magnitude. According to the results, under LULCC forcing the ensemble mean of WAMME II models can produces about 40 % of the precipitation difference between the 1980s and the 1950s. The role of land surface processes in responding to and amplifying the drought is also identified. The results suggest that catastrophic consequences are likely to occur in the regional Sahel climate when SST anomalies in individual ocean basins and in land conditions combine synergistically to favor drought. © 2016, Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg.
资助项目: NSF, National Science Foundation ; NSF, National Science Foundation
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/53453
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作者单位: University of California, Los Angeles, CA, United States; San Diego State University, San Diego, CA, United States; University of Maryland, College Park, MD, United States; Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques, Météo-France, Toulouse, France; NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, United States; University of Connecticut, Storrs, CT, United States; The International Center for Theoretical Physics, Trieste, Italy; Meteorological Research Institute, Tsukuba, Japan; Cold and Arid Regions Environmental and Engineering Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou, China; NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies and Columbia University, New York, NY, United States; AGRHYMET Regional Center and Abdou Moumouni University, Niamey, Niger; National Center for Environmental Prediction, College Park, MD, United States; Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, United Kingdom; Goddard Earth Sciences Technology and Research, I. M. Systems Group, Greenbelt, MD, United States; Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Interactions Studies, George Mason University, Fairfax, VA, United States; Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA, United States; University of Tsukuba, Tsukuba, Japan; University at Albany, State University of New York, Albany, NY, United States; Cornell University, Ithaca, NY, United States; Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing, China

Recommended Citation:
Xue Y.,De Sales F.,Lau W.K.-M.,et al. West African monsoon decadal variability and surface-related forcings: second West African Monsoon Modeling and Evaluation Project Experiment (WAMME II)[J]. Climate Dynamics,2016-01-01,47(11)
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