DOI: 10.1007/s10584-015-1573-1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84961178553
论文题名: Evaluation and projections of extreme precipitation over southern Africa from two CORDEX models
作者: Pinto I. ; Lennard C. ; Tadross M. ; Hewitson B. ; Dosio A. ; Nikulin G. ; Panitz H.-J. ; Shongwe M.E.
刊名: Climatic Change
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2016
卷: 135, 期: 2018-03-04 起始页码: 655
结束页码: 668
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Precipitation (meteorology)
; Rain
; Tropical engineering
; Tropics
; Climate information
; Computational effort
; Extreme precipitation
; Extreme precipitation events
; Global climate model
; Parametric and non-parametric approaches
; Regional climate modeling (RCM)
; Total precipitation
; Climate models
; climate modeling
; climate prediction
; climatology
; global climate
; information
; precipitation (climatology)
; precipitation assessment
; regional climate
; regional pattern
; South Africa
英文摘要: The study focuses on the analysis of extreme precipitation events of the present and future climate over southern Africa. Parametric and non-parametric approaches are used to identify and analyse these extreme events in data from the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) models. The performance of the global climate model (GCM) forced regional climate model (RCM) simulations shows that the models are able to capture the observed climatological spatial patterns of the extreme precipitation. It is also shown that the downscaling of the present climate are able to add value to the performance of GCMs over some areas depending on the metric used. The added value over GCMs justifies the additional computational effort of RCM simulation for the generation of relevant climate information for regional application. In the climate projections for the end of twenty-first Century (2069–2098) relative to the reference period (1976–2005), annual total precipitation is projected to decrease while the maximum number of consecutive dry days increases. Maximum 5-day precipitation amounts and 95th percentile of precipitation are also projected to increase significantly in the tropical and sub-tropical regions of southern Africa and decrease in the extra-tropical region. There are indications that rainfall intensity is likely to increase. This does not equate to an increase in total rainfall, but suggests that when it does rain, the intensity is likely to be greater. These changes are magnified under the RCP8.5 when compared with the RCP4.5 and are consistent with previous studies based on GCMs over the region. © 2015, Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/84336
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Climate System Analysis Group, University of Cape Town (UCT), Private Bag X3, Rondebosch, Western Cape, South Africa; United Nations Development Programme (UNDP-GEF), Energy and Environment Group, New York, NY, United States; European Commission Joint Research Centre (JRC), Institute for Environment and Sustainability (IES), Ispra, Italy; Rossby Centre, Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, Norrköping, Sweden; Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research - Tropopshere Research, Karlsruhe, Germany; South African Weather Service and University of Pretoria, Pretoria, South Africa
Recommended Citation:
Pinto I.,Lennard C.,Tadross M.,et al. Evaluation and projections of extreme precipitation over southern Africa from two CORDEX models[J]. Climatic Change,2016-01-01,135(2018-03-04)